Marfrig Global Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

MRRTY Stock  USD 2.07  0.04  1.90%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marfrig Global Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 2.21 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.05  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.85. Marfrig Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marfrig Global stock prices and determine the direction of Marfrig Global Foods's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marfrig Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marfrig Global to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Marfrig Global cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Marfrig Global's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Marfrig Global's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Marfrig Global is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Marfrig Global Foods value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Marfrig Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marfrig Global Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 2.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marfrig Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marfrig Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marfrig Global Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Marfrig Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Marfrig Global's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marfrig Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.52, respectively. We have considered Marfrig Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.07
2.21
Expected Value
5.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marfrig Global pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marfrig Global pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.4496
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0468
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0249
SAESum of the absolute errors2.8548
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Marfrig Global Foods. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Marfrig Global. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Marfrig Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marfrig Global Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marfrig Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.102.075.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.664.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marfrig Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marfrig Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marfrig Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marfrig Global Foods.

Other Forecasting Options for Marfrig Global

For every potential investor in Marfrig, whether a beginner or expert, Marfrig Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marfrig Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marfrig. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marfrig Global's price trends.

Marfrig Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marfrig Global pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marfrig Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marfrig Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marfrig Global Foods Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marfrig Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marfrig Global's current price.

Marfrig Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marfrig Global pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marfrig Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marfrig Global pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Marfrig Global Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marfrig Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marfrig Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marfrig Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marfrig pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Marfrig Global in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Marfrig Global's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Marfrig Global options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marfrig Global to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

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When running Marfrig Global's price analysis, check to measure Marfrig Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marfrig Global is operating at the current time. Most of Marfrig Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marfrig Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marfrig Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marfrig Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Marfrig Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marfrig Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marfrig Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.