Southern Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SOJD Stock | USD 22.15 0.38 1.75% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern Co on the next trading day is expected to be 21.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.66. Southern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Southern stock prices and determine the direction of Southern Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Southern's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Southern's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Southern's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Southern fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern to cross-verify your projections. Southern |
Most investors in Southern cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Southern's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Southern's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Southern is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Southern Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Southern Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern Co on the next trading day is expected to be 21.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southern Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southern | Southern Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Southern Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southern's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.74 and 22.86, respectively. We have considered Southern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7228 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2239 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.6568 |
Predictive Modules for Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Southern
For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern's price trends.Southern Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southern stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Southern's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Southern's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Southern Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southern Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7653 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Variance | 1.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Southern is a strong investment it is important to analyze Southern's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Southern's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Southern Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Complementary Tools for Southern Stock analysis
When running Southern's price analysis, check to measure Southern's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southern is operating at the current time. Most of Southern's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southern's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southern's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southern to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Southern's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southern. If investors know Southern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southern listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Southern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southern's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southern's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southern's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southern's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southern is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.