Elanco Animal Health Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.86
| ELAN Stock | USD 17.00 0.20 1.16% |
Elanco |
Elanco Animal Target Price Odds to finish over 15.86
The tendency of Elanco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 15.86 in 90 days |
| 17.00 | 90 days | 15.86 | about 31.86 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Elanco Animal to stay above $ 15.86 in 90 days from now is about 31.86 (This Elanco Animal Health probability density function shows the probability of Elanco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Elanco Animal Health price to stay between $ 15.86 and its current price of $17.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.76 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Elanco Animal has a beta of 0.61 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Elanco Animal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Elanco Animal Health will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Elanco Animal Health has an alpha of 0.1179, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Elanco Animal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Elanco Animal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elanco Animal Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elanco Animal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Elanco Animal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Elanco Animal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Elanco Animal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Elanco Animal Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Elanco Animal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Elanco Animal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Elanco Animal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Elanco Animal Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Elanco Animal Health had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.42 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.23 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.5 B. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Elanco Animal Health Inc Earnings Call Transcript Highlights Navigating ... |
Elanco Animal Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Elanco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Elanco Animal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elanco Animal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 492.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 352 M |
Elanco Animal Technical Analysis
Elanco Animal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Elanco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Elanco Animal Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Elanco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Elanco Animal Predictive Forecast Models
Elanco Animal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Elanco Animal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Elanco Animal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Elanco Animal Health
Checking the ongoing alerts about Elanco Animal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Elanco Animal Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Elanco Animal Health had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.42 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.23 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.5 B. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Elanco Animal Health Inc Earnings Call Transcript Highlights Navigating ... |
Check out Elanco Animal Backtesting, Elanco Animal Valuation, Elanco Animal Correlation, Elanco Animal Hype Analysis, Elanco Animal Volatility, Elanco Animal History as well as Elanco Animal Performance. Note that the Elanco Animal Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Elanco Animal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Elanco Stock analysis
When running Elanco Animal's price analysis, check to measure Elanco Animal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elanco Animal is operating at the current time. Most of Elanco Animal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elanco Animal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elanco Animal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elanco Animal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Elanco Animal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elanco Animal. If investors know Elanco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Elanco Animal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Elanco Animal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Elanco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Elanco Animal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Elanco Animal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Elanco Animal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Elanco Animal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Elanco Animal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Elanco Animal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Elanco Animal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.