Gabelli Equity Trust Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 5.46

GAB Fund  USD 5.46  0.08  1.44%   
Gabelli Equity's future price is the expected price of Gabelli Equity instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Gabelli Equity Trust performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Gabelli Equity Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Gabelli Equity Correlation, Gabelli Equity Hype Analysis, Gabelli Equity Volatility, Gabelli Equity History as well as Gabelli Equity Performance.
  
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Gabelli Equity Target Price Odds to finish over 5.46

The tendency of Gabelli Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.46 90 days 5.46 
about 39.25
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gabelli Equity to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 39.25 (This Gabelli Equity Trust probability density function shows the probability of Gabelli Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Gabelli Equity has a beta of 0.4. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gabelli Equity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gabelli Equity Trust will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gabelli Equity Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Gabelli Equity Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Gabelli Equity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gabelli Equity Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gabelli Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.625.466.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.605.446.28
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.715.556.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.405.525.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gabelli Equity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gabelli Equity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gabelli Equity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gabelli Equity Trust.

Gabelli Equity Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gabelli Equity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gabelli Equity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gabelli Equity Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gabelli Equity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.0066
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.40
σ
Overall volatility
0.11
Ir
Information ratio 0.0009

Gabelli Equity Technical Analysis

Gabelli Equity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gabelli Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gabelli Equity Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gabelli Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Gabelli Equity Predictive Forecast Models

Gabelli Equity's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gabelli Equity's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gabelli Equity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gabelli Equity in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gabelli Equity's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gabelli Equity options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Gabelli Fund

Gabelli Equity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gabelli Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gabelli with respect to the benefits of owning Gabelli Equity security.
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