Kellanova Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 55.65

K Stock  USD 55.65  0.52  0.93%   
Kellanova's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Kellanova. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Kellanova based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Kellanova over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $55.0 is a CALL option contract on Kellanova's common stock with a strick price of 55.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-04-11 at 14:01:13 for $1.81 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.4, and an ask price of $1.55. The implied volatility as of the 12th of April 2024 is 24.01. View All Kellanova options

Closest to current price Kellanova long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Kellanova's future price is the expected price of Kellanova instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Kellanova performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Kellanova Backtesting, Kellanova Valuation, Kellanova Correlation, Kellanova Hype Analysis, Kellanova Volatility, Kellanova History as well as Kellanova Performance.
For more information on how to buy Kellanova Stock please use our How to buy in Kellanova Stock guide.
  
At this time, Kellanova's Price Fair Value is quite stable compared to the past year. Please specify Kellanova's target price for which you would like Kellanova odds to be computed.

Kellanova Target Price Odds to finish over 55.65

The tendency of Kellanova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 55.65 90 days 55.65 
about 35.72
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kellanova to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 35.72 (This Kellanova probability density function shows the probability of Kellanova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon Kellanova has a beta of 0.62. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kellanova average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kellanova will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kellanova has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Kellanova Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Kellanova

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kellanova. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kellanova's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
54.3655.5956.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
50.0958.9260.15
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
53.6854.9256.15
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
56.7762.3869.24
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kellanova. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kellanova's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kellanova's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kellanova.

Kellanova Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kellanova is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kellanova's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kellanova, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kellanova within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.06
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.62
σ
Overall volatility
1.23
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Kellanova Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kellanova for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kellanova can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has accumulated 6.53 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.56, which looks OK as compared to the sector. Kellanova has a current ratio of 0.73, which means it has a negative working capital and may have difficulties to pay out interest payments when they become due. Debt can assist Kellanova until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kellanova's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kellanova sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kellanova to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kellanova's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Kellanova has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 88.0% of Kellanova shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of March 2024 Kellanova paid $ 0.56 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Kellanova 2024 Annual Shareowners Meeting to be Webcast Live

Kellanova Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kellanova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kellanova's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kellanova's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding345 M
Cash And Short Term Investments274 M

Kellanova Technical Analysis

Kellanova's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kellanova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kellanova. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kellanova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Kellanova Predictive Forecast Models

Kellanova's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kellanova's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kellanova's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Kellanova

Checking the ongoing alerts about Kellanova for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kellanova help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has accumulated 6.53 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.56, which looks OK as compared to the sector. Kellanova has a current ratio of 0.73, which means it has a negative working capital and may have difficulties to pay out interest payments when they become due. Debt can assist Kellanova until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kellanova's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kellanova sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kellanova to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kellanova's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Kellanova has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 88.0% of Kellanova shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of March 2024 Kellanova paid $ 0.56 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Kellanova 2024 Annual Shareowners Meeting to be Webcast Live
When determining whether Kellanova is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Kellanova Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Kellanova Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Kellanova Stock:
Check out Kellanova Backtesting, Kellanova Valuation, Kellanova Correlation, Kellanova Hype Analysis, Kellanova Volatility, Kellanova History as well as Kellanova Performance.
For more information on how to buy Kellanova Stock please use our How to buy in Kellanova Stock guide.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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When running Kellanova's price analysis, check to measure Kellanova's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kellanova is operating at the current time. Most of Kellanova's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kellanova's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kellanova's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kellanova to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kellanova's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kellanova. If investors know Kellanova will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kellanova listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.13)
Dividend Share
2.34
Earnings Share
2.25
Revenue Per Share
38.359
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.17)
The market value of Kellanova is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kellanova that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kellanova's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kellanova's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kellanova's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kellanova's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kellanova's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kellanova is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kellanova's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.