Novavax Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.33
| NVAX Stock | USD 4.93 0.22 4.67% |
Closest to current price Novavax long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Novavax |
Novavax Target Price Odds to finish over 4.33
The tendency of Novavax Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 4.33 in 90 days |
| 4.93 | 90 days | 4.33 | about 64.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novavax to stay above $ 4.33 in 90 days from now is about 64.62 (This Novavax probability density function shows the probability of Novavax Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novavax price to stay between $ 4.33 and its current price of $4.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.28 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Novavax will likely underperform. Additionally Novavax has an alpha of 0.2528, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Novavax Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Novavax
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novavax. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novavax's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novavax Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novavax is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novavax's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novavax, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novavax within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Novavax Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novavax for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novavax can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novavax is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Novavax appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Novavax has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 983.71 M. Net Loss for the year was (545.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (156.04 M). | |
| Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (717.56 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from accesswire.com: Levi Korsinsky, LLP Notifies Shareholders of Novavax, Inc. an Upcoming Claims Deadline in a Class Action Settlement |
Novavax Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novavax Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novavax's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novavax's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 578.9 M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Novavax's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novavax Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novavax. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novavax Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Novavax Predictive Forecast Models
Novavax's time-series forecasting models is one of many Novavax's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novavax's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Novavax
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novavax for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novavax help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Novavax is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Novavax appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Novavax has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 983.71 M. Net Loss for the year was (545.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (156.04 M). | |
| Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (717.56 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from accesswire.com: Levi Korsinsky, LLP Notifies Shareholders of Novavax, Inc. an Upcoming Claims Deadline in a Class Action Settlement |
Check out Novavax Backtesting, Novavax Valuation, Novavax Correlation, Novavax Hype Analysis, Novavax Volatility, Novavax History as well as Novavax Performance. For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide.Note that the Novavax information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novavax's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Novavax Stock analysis
When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novavax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novavax. If investors know Novavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novavax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.41) | Revenue Per Share 9.762 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) | Return On Assets (0.17) | Return On Equity (8.98) |
The market value of Novavax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novavax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novavax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novavax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novavax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novavax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novavax is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novavax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.