TAL Education Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.72

TAL
 Stock
  

USD 5.72  0.23  4.19%   

TAL Education's future price is the expected price of TAL Education instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of TAL Education Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The Price to Book Value is projected to pull down to 7.12. The value of Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to pull down to 32.63.
  
TAL Education's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on TAL Education Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of TAL Education based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in TAL Education Group over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-09 CALL at $5.5 is a CALL option contract on TAL Education's common stock with a strick price of 5.5 expiring on 2022-12-09. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-06 at 15:50:55 for $0.33 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.31, and an ask price of $0.34. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 120.9769. View All TAL Education options

Closest to current price TAL Education long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, take a look at TAL Education Backtesting, TAL Education Valuation, TAL Education Correlation, TAL Education Hype Analysis, TAL Education Volatility, TAL Education History as well as TAL Education Performance. Please specify TAL Education time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like TAL Education odds to be computed.

TAL Education Target Price Odds to finish over 5.72

The tendency of TAL Education Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.72 90 days 5.72 
about 11.81
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TAL Education to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 11.81 (This TAL Education Group probability density function shows the probability of TAL Education Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.19 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, TAL Education will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.159, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   TAL Education Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for TAL Education

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TAL Education Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of TAL Education's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of TAL Education in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.295.7811.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.285.5111.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.115.4911.61
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
4.406.6710.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TAL Education. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TAL Education's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TAL Education's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in TAL Education Group.

TAL Education Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TAL Education is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TAL Education's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TAL Education Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TAL Education within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.19
σ
Overall volatility
0.65
Ir
Information ratio 0.028157

TAL Education Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TAL Education for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TAL Education Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
TAL Education Group has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.39 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.16 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.19 B.
TAL Education Group has about 1.64 B in cash with (939.18 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.86.
TAL Education Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: TAL Education Signs Of Recovery - Seeking Alpha

TAL Education Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TAL Education Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TAL Education's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TAL Education's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding644540864.00
Cash And Short Term Investments2708724000.00

TAL Education Technical Analysis

TAL Education's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TAL Education Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TAL Education Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing TAL Education Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

TAL Education Predictive Forecast Models

TAL Education time-series forecasting models is one of many TAL Education's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary TAL Education's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about TAL Education Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about TAL Education for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TAL Education Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
TAL Education Group has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.39 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.16 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.19 B.
TAL Education Group has about 1.64 B in cash with (939.18 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.86.
TAL Education Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: TAL Education Signs Of Recovery - Seeking Alpha
Additionally, take a look at TAL Education Backtesting, TAL Education Valuation, TAL Education Correlation, TAL Education Hype Analysis, TAL Education Volatility, TAL Education History as well as TAL Education Performance. Note that the TAL Education Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other TAL Education's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

Complementary Tools for TAL Education Stock analysis

When running TAL Education Group price analysis, check to measure TAL Education's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TAL Education is operating at the current time. Most of TAL Education's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TAL Education's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TAL Education's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TAL Education to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is TAL Education's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TAL Education. If investors know TAL Education will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TAL Education listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of TAL Education Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TAL Education that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TAL Education's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TAL Education's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TAL Education's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TAL Education's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TAL Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine TAL Education value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TAL Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.