Tal Education Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.44

TAL Stock  USD 14.44  0.23  1.62%   
TAL Education's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on TAL Education Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of TAL Education based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in TAL Education Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-01 CALL at $14.5 is a CALL option contract on TAL Education's common stock with a strick price of 14.5 expiring on 2024-03-01. The contract was last traded on 2024-02-26 at 15:38:41 for $0.43 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.41, and an ask price of $0.45. The implied volatility as of the 26th of February is 88.59. View All TAL options

Closest to current price TAL long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

TAL Education's future price is the expected price of TAL Education instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of TAL Education Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out TAL Education Backtesting, TAL Education Valuation, TAL Education Correlation, TAL Education Hype Analysis, TAL Education Volatility, TAL Education History as well as TAL Education Performance.
  
At this time, TAL Education's Price to Book Value is quite stable as compared to the past year. Price to Sales Ratio is expected to rise to 6.48 this year, although the value of Price to Earnings Ratio will most likely fall to (32.05). Please specify TAL Education's target price for which you would like TAL Education odds to be computed.

TAL Education Target Price Odds to finish over 14.44

The tendency of TAL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 14.44 90 days 14.44 
roughly 2.41
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TAL Education to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.41 (This TAL Education Group probability density function shows the probability of TAL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.25 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, TAL Education will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4774, implying that it can generate a 0.48 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   TAL Education Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for TAL Education

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TAL Education Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of TAL Education's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of TAL Education in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.2814.1818.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.1011.0014.90
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.4413.3417.25
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.678.439.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TAL Education. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TAL Education's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TAL Education's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in TAL Education Group.

TAL Education Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TAL Education is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TAL Education's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TAL Education Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TAL Education within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.48
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.25
σ
Overall volatility
1.19
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

TAL Education Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TAL Education for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TAL Education Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
TAL Education Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.02 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (131.98 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 583.41 M.
TAL Education Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: TAL Education Group Hits New 12-Month High at 15.52 - MarketBeat

TAL Education Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TAL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TAL Education's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TAL Education's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding637.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.2 B

TAL Education Technical Analysis

TAL Education's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TAL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TAL Education Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing TAL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

TAL Education Predictive Forecast Models

TAL Education's time-series forecasting models is one of many TAL Education's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TAL Education's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about TAL Education Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about TAL Education for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TAL Education Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
TAL Education Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.02 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (131.98 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 583.41 M.
TAL Education Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: TAL Education Group Hits New 12-Month High at 15.52 - MarketBeat
When determining whether TAL Education Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze TAL Education's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TAL Education's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TAL Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out TAL Education Backtesting, TAL Education Valuation, TAL Education Correlation, TAL Education Hype Analysis, TAL Education Volatility, TAL Education History as well as TAL Education Performance.
Note that the TAL Education Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other TAL Education's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

Complementary Tools for TAL Stock analysis

When running TAL Education's price analysis, check to measure TAL Education's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TAL Education is operating at the current time. Most of TAL Education's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TAL Education's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TAL Education's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TAL Education to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is TAL Education's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TAL Education. If investors know TAL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TAL Education listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.77)
Earnings Share
(0.11)
Revenue Per Share
2.152
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.605
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of TAL Education Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TAL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TAL Education's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TAL Education's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TAL Education's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TAL Education's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TAL Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TAL Education is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TAL Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.