Umh Properties Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.66
| UMH Stock | USD 15.15 0.06 0.39% |
Closest to current price UMH long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
UMH |
UMH Properties Target Price Odds to finish over 15.66
The tendency of UMH Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 15.66 or more in 90 days |
| 15.15 | 90 days | 15.66 | about 39.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UMH Properties to move over $ 15.66 or more in 90 days from now is about 39.85 (This UMH Properties probability density function shows the probability of UMH Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UMH Properties price to stay between its current price of $ 15.15 and $ 15.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.63 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.38 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, UMH Properties will likely underperform. Additionally UMH Properties has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. UMH Properties Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for UMH Properties
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMH Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UMH Properties' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UMH Properties Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UMH Properties is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UMH Properties' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UMH Properties, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UMH Properties within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
UMH Properties Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UMH Properties for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UMH Properties can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| UMH Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UMH Properties has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of May 2024 UMH Properties paid $ 0.215 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: UMH Properties CEO sells 375k in company stock |
UMH Properties Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UMH Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UMH Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMH Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 91.8 M |
UMH Properties Technical Analysis
UMH Properties' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UMH Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UMH Properties. In general, you should focus on analyzing UMH Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UMH Properties Predictive Forecast Models
UMH Properties' time-series forecasting models is one of many UMH Properties' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UMH Properties' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about UMH Properties
Checking the ongoing alerts about UMH Properties for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UMH Properties help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| UMH Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UMH Properties has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of May 2024 UMH Properties paid $ 0.215 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: UMH Properties CEO sells 375k in company stock |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in UMH Stock
When determining whether UMH Properties offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of UMH Properties' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Umh Properties Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Umh Properties Stock:Check out UMH Properties Backtesting, UMH Properties Valuation, UMH Properties Correlation, UMH Properties Hype Analysis, UMH Properties Volatility, UMH Properties History as well as UMH Properties Performance. For more detail on how to invest in UMH Stock please use our How to Invest in UMH Properties guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Single-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UMH Properties. If investors know UMH will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UMH Properties listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 46.894 | Dividend Share 0.82 | Earnings Share (0.15) | Revenue Per Share 3.436 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.1 |
The market value of UMH Properties is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UMH that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UMH Properties' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UMH Properties' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UMH Properties' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UMH Properties' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UMH Properties' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UMH Properties is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UMH Properties' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.