Northern Oil Gas Stock Beneish M Score

NOG Stock  USD 36.76  0.51  1.37%   
This module uses fundamental data of Northern Oil to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Northern Oil M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Northern Oil Piotroski F Score and Northern Oil Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At this time, Northern Oil's Long Term Debt is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Northern Oil's current Net Debt To EBITDA is estimated to increase to 1.41, while Long Term Debt Total is projected to decrease to roughly 1.1 B. At this time, Northern Oil's Invested Capital is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The Northern Oil's current PB Ratio is estimated to increase to 1.74, while Book Value Per Share is projected to decrease to 18.94.
At this time, it appears that Northern Oil Gas is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Northern Oil's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Northern Oil executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Northern Oil's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.71
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

1.0

Focus
Asset Quality

0.94

Focus
Expense Coverage

1.0

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

1.15

Focus
Accruals Factor

1.0

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

1.0

Focus
Net Sales Growth

1.05

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.0

Focus

Northern Oil Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Northern Oil's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables392.5 M373.8 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total RevenueB1.9 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Assets4.7 B4.5 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets534.9 M509.4 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total4.2 BB
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Property Plant EquipmentB2.9 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative49.1 M46.8 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Current Liabilities405 M385.8 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total2.2 B2.1 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Net Debt1.9 B1.8 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt1.9 B1.8 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term Investments20 M22.5 M
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile

Northern Oil Gas Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Northern Oil's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Northern Oil in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Northern Oil's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Northern Oil Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Other Operating Expenses

1.09 Billion

At this time, Northern Oil's Other Operating Expenses is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years.

Northern Oil Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Northern Oil. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables108.5M71.0M193.6M271.7M373.8M392.5M
Total Revenue601.2M324.1M975.1M2.0B1.9B2.0B
Total Assets1.9B872.1M1.5B2.9B4.5B4.7B
Total Current Assets133.0M125.6M215.3M320.5M509.4M534.9M
Net Debt1.1B943.4M793.9M1.5B1.8B1.9B
Long Term Debt1.1B879.8M803.4M1.5B1.8B1.9B
Operating Income(19.3M)(2.7M)415.3M853.2M873.0M916.7M
Investments(569.1M)(283.9M)(634.4M)(1.4B)(2.0B)(1.9B)
Gross Profit Margin0.360.04880.60.660.480.55

Northern Oil ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Northern Oil's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Northern Oil's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environmental
Governance
Social

About Northern Oil Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Northern Oil Gas's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Northern Oil using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Northern Oil Gas based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Northern Stock

When determining whether Northern Oil Gas is a strong investment it is important to analyze Northern Oil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Northern Oil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Northern Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Northern Oil Piotroski F Score and Northern Oil Altman Z Score analysis.
You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Dividend Share
1.55
Earnings Share
6.16
Revenue Per Share
19.262
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.229
The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.