Agilysys Stock Price Prediction

AGYS Stock  USD 81.78  0.03  0.04%   
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Agilysys' share price is at 57. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Agilysys, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

57

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Agilysys stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Agilysys shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Agilysys' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Agilysys and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Agilysys' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Agilysys, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Agilysys' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
20.923
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.29
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.07
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.27
Wall Street Target Price
100
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Agilysys based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Agilysys stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Agilysys over a specific investment horizon. Using Agilysys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Agilysys from the perspective of Agilysys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Agilysys using Agilysys' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Agilysys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Agilysys' stock price.

Agilysys Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Agilysys' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Agilysys. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Agilysys stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Agilysys may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Agilysys and may potentially protect profits, hedge Agilysys with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
77.592
Short Percent
0.0254
Short Ratio
2.68
Shares Short Prior Month
545.5 K
50 Day MA
80.9782

Agilysys Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Agilysys' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Agilysys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agilysys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Agilysys. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Agilysys' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Agilysys.

Agilysys Implied Volatility

    
  49.66  
Agilysys' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Agilysys stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Agilysys' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Agilysys stock will not fluctuate a lot when Agilysys' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Agilysys. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Agilysys to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Agilysys because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Agilysys after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 81.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Agilysys contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Agilysys will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.1% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Agilysys trading at USD 81.78, that is roughly USD 2.54 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Agilysys' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Agilysys options at the current volatility level of 49.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Agilysys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agilysys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
73.6085.9288.10
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
76.2278.3980.57
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
81.3589.4099.23
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.260.280.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agilysys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agilysys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agilysys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Agilysys.

Agilysys After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Agilysys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agilysys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agilysys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Agilysys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Agilysys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agilysys' historical news coverage. Agilysys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 79.63 and 83.99, respectively. We have considered Agilysys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
81.78
81.81
After-hype Price
83.99
Upside
Agilysys is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Agilysys is based on 3 months time horizon.

Agilysys Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agilysys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agilysys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agilysys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07 
2.18
  0.03 
 0.00  
10 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
81.78
81.81
0.04 
495.45  
Notes

Agilysys Hype Timeline

Agilysys is presently traded for 81.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Agilysys is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 81.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Agilysys is about 13625.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 81.78. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 198.06 M. Net Income was 14.58 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 120.82 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Agilysys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.

Agilysys Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Agilysys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agilysys' future price movements. Getting to know how Agilysys' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agilysys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMSWAAmerican Software 0.02 6 per month 0.00 (0.08) 2.39 (4.36) 17.12 
ALKTAlkami Technology(0.35)8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.10 (3.58) 9.72 
BLKBBlackbaud 0.59 10 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.01 (3.24) 16.89 
ENFNEnfusion 0.14 9 per month 2.02  0.01  2.65 (3.23) 14.14 
CWANClearwater Analytics Holdings(0.05)11 per month 0.00 (0.15) 2.46 (3.25) 14.00 
EXFYExpensify(0.04)10 per month 0.00 (0.02) 9.09 (8.70) 28.84 
MODNModel N 0.41 10 per month 1.82  0.04  2.93 (2.85) 11.23 
ENVEnvestnet 0.22 9 per month 1.68  0.14  3.62 (3.24) 11.69 
ISDRIssuer Direct Corp(0.74)9 per month 0.00 (0.21) 3.73 (3.88) 11.82 
ETWOE2open Parent Holdings(0.04)8 per month 2.67  0.03  4.96 (4.15) 13.23 

Agilysys Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Agilysys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agilysys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agilysys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Agilysys Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Agilysys stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Agilysys, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Agilysys based on analysis of Agilysys hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Agilysys's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Agilysys's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.001899.01E-40.0010369.84E-4
Price To Sales Ratio5.9710.299.269.72

Story Coverage note for Agilysys

The number of cover stories for Agilysys depends on current market conditions and Agilysys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agilysys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agilysys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Agilysys Short Properties

Agilysys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Agilysys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Agilysys often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agilysys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agilysys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding25.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments112.8 M
When determining whether Agilysys is a strong investment it is important to analyze Agilysys' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Agilysys' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Agilysys Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Agilysys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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Is Agilysys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilysys. If investors know Agilysys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agilysys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
20.923
Earnings Share
3.24
Revenue Per Share
9.072
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.213
Return On Assets
0.0334
The market value of Agilysys is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agilysys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agilysys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agilysys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agilysys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agilysys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agilysys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agilysys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agilysys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.