Biogen Inc Stock Price Prediction

BIIB Stock  USD 224.00  1.58  0.70%   
At the present time, The RSI of Biogen's share price is at 59 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Biogen, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

59

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Biogen's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Biogen Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Biogen's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.011
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.94
EPS Estimate Current Year
15.62
EPS Estimate Next Year
17.38
Wall Street Target Price
283.81
Using Biogen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Biogen Inc from the perspective of Biogen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Biogen using Biogen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Biogen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Biogen's stock price.

Biogen Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Biogen's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Biogen. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Biogen stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
235.0004
Short Percent
0.0269
Short Ratio
2.6
Shares Short Prior Month
3.5 M
50 Day MA
217.6626

Biogen Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Biogen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Biogen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Biogen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Biogen Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Biogen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Biogen.

Biogen Implied Volatility

    
  40.49  
Biogen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Biogen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Biogen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Biogen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Biogen's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Biogen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Biogen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Biogen after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 224.43  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Biogen contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Biogen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.53% per day over the life of the 2024-06-21 option contract. With Biogen trading at USD 224.0, that is roughly USD 5.67 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Biogen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Biogen Inc options at the current volatility level of 40.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Biogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Biogen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
201.60268.42270.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
226.97228.72230.48
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
300.99330.76367.14
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.404.006.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Biogen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Biogen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Biogen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Biogen Inc.

Biogen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Biogen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Biogen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Biogen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Biogen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Biogen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Biogen's historical news coverage. Biogen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 222.68 and 226.18, respectively. We have considered Biogen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
224.00
222.68
Downside
224.43
After-hype Price
226.18
Upside
Biogen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Biogen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Biogen Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Biogen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Biogen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Biogen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07 
1.75
  0.43 
  0.05 
7 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
224.00
224.43
0.19 
28.59  
Notes

Biogen Hype Timeline

Biogen Inc is currently traded for 224.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Biogen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 224.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 28.59%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Biogen is about 266.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 223.95. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 9.84 B. Net Income was 1.16 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.9 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Biogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Biogen Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Biogen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Biogen's future price movements. Getting to know how Biogen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Biogen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BMYBristol Myers Squibb(0.68)8 per month 0.00 (0.21) 1.84 (2.33) 10.36 
ABBVAbbVie Inc(1.79)11 per month 0.00 (0.03) 1.85 (2.04) 6.29 
MRKMerck Company(2.48)8 per month 0.72  0.09  2.30 (1.22) 7.59 
GILDGilead Sciences(0.65)10 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.13 (2.40) 5.36 
JNJJohnson Johnson 0.40 7 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.46 (1.82) 7.04 
AMGNAmgen Inc(0.21)10 per month 1.02  0.11  2.35 (1.85) 15.61 
PFEPfizer Inc(0.22)5 per month 1.41  0.01  2.27 (2.13) 9.18 
SNYSanofi ADR 0.09 7 per month 0.00 (0.02) 2.51 (2.26) 9.35 
NVSNovartis AG ADR(0.78)10 per month 0.58  0.14  2.10 (1.28) 4.31 
GSKGlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR(0.25)10 per month 0.00 (0.03) 1.82 (1.47) 11.66 

Biogen Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Biogen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Biogen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Biogen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Biogen Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Biogen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Biogen Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Biogen based on analysis of Biogen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Biogen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Biogen's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.002280.002166
Price To Sales Ratio3.813.62

Story Coverage note for Biogen

The number of cover stories for Biogen depends on current market conditions and Biogen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Biogen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Biogen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Biogen Short Properties

Biogen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Biogen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Biogen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Biogen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Biogen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding145.6 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Complementary Tools for Biogen Stock analysis

When running Biogen's price analysis, check to measure Biogen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Biogen is operating at the current time. Most of Biogen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Biogen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Biogen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Biogen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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