Mastercard Stock Price Prediction
| MA Stock | USD 438.18 8.58 2.00% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.304 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.59 | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.29 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.62 | Wall Street Target Price 514.16 |
Using Mastercard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mastercard from the perspective of Mastercard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mastercard using Mastercard's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mastercard using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mastercard's stock price.
Mastercard Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Mastercard's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Mastercard. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Mastercard stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 439.4273 | Short Percent 0.0054 | Short Ratio 1.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 447.3614 |
Mastercard Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Mastercard's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Mastercard. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mastercard can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mastercard. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Mastercard's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Mastercard.
Mastercard Implied Volatility | 43.52 |
Mastercard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mastercard stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mastercard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mastercard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mastercard's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Mastercard to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Mastercard because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Mastercard after-hype prediction price | USD 437.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mastercard contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mastercard will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.72% per day over the life of the 2024-08-02 option contract. With Mastercard trading at USD 438.18, that is roughly USD 11.92 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mastercard's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mastercard options at the current volatility level of 43.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Mastercard |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mastercard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mastercard After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mastercard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mastercard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mastercard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mastercard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mastercard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mastercard's historical news coverage. Mastercard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 436.79 and 438.67, respectively. We have considered Mastercard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mastercard is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mastercard is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mastercard Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mastercard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mastercard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mastercard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.94 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
438.18 | 437.73 | 0.10 |
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Mastercard Hype Timeline
As of July 27, 2024 Mastercard is listed for 438.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Mastercard is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 437.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 12.48%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Mastercard is about 99.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 438.12. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.56. Mastercard recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.59. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of July 2024. The firm had 10:1 split on the 22nd of January 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Mastercard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Mastercard Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mastercard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mastercard's future price movements. Getting to know how Mastercard's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mastercard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AXP | American Express | 0.58 | 8 per month | 1.19 | (0.02) | 1.54 | (2.04) | 5.04 | |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings | (0.48) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.39 | (2.98) | 8.95 | |
| UPST | Upstart Holdings | 0.22 | 11 per month | 4.11 | 0.05 | 7.99 | (8.09) | 22.69 | |
| COF | Capital One Financial | (3.05) | 10 per month | 1.37 | (0.04) | 2.54 | (2.00) | 6.60 | |
| V | Visa Class A | (3.14) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.39 | (1.55) | 5.91 | |
| ALLY | Ally Financial | (0.99) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.07 | 2.63 | (1.89) | 6.04 | |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies | 0.27 | 11 per month | 2.72 | (0.03) | 3.69 | (3.95) | 14.11 |
Mastercard Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mastercard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mastercard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mastercard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Mastercard Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Mastercard stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Mastercard, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mastercard based on analysis of Mastercard hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Mastercard's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Mastercard's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.004904 | 0.005654 | 0.00536 | 0.003296 | Price To Sales Ratio | 18.8 | 15.14 | 16.04 | 16.84 |
Story Coverage note for Mastercard
The number of cover stories for Mastercard depends on current market conditions and Mastercard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mastercard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mastercard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mastercard Short Properties
Mastercard's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mastercard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mastercard often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mastercard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mastercard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 946 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.2 B |
Complementary Tools for Mastercard Stock analysis
When running Mastercard's price analysis, check to measure Mastercard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mastercard is operating at the current time. Most of Mastercard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mastercard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mastercard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mastercard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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