ArcelorMittal Stock Future Price Prediction

MT Stock  USD 30.49  0.96  3.05%   
ArcelorMittal SA ADR stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ArcelorMittal shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ArcelorMittal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ArcelorMittal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ArcelorMittal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ArcelorMittal SA ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see ArcelorMittal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ArcelorMittal based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ArcelorMittal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ArcelorMittal over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.68
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.34
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.63
Wall Street Target Price
35.01
Using ArcelorMittal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ArcelorMittal SA ADR from the perspective of ArcelorMittal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ArcelorMittal using ArcelorMittal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ArcelorMittal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ArcelorMittal's stock price.
ArcelorMittal Free Cash Flow per Share is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. ArcelorMittal reported Free Cash Flow per Share of 7.32 in 2022. Gross Margin is likely to gain to 0.31 in 2023, whereas Enterprise Value over EBIT is likely to drop 1.44 in 2023.

ArcelorMittal Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in ArcelorMittal's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ArcelorMittal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ArcelorMittal stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ArcelorMittal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ArcelorMittal and may potentially protect profits, hedge ArcelorMittal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
25.7425
Short Percent
0.0069
Short Ratio
1.62
Shares Short Prior Month
3.5 M
50 Day MA
28.047

ArcelorMittal SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ArcelorMittal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in ArcelorMittal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ArcelorMittal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ArcelorMittal SA ADR. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ArcelorMittal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ArcelorMittal.

ArcelorMittal Implied Volatility

    
  24.37  
ArcelorMittal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ArcelorMittal SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ArcelorMittal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ArcelorMittal stock will not fluctuate a lot when ArcelorMittal's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ArcelorMittal. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ArcelorMittal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ArcelorMittal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

ArcelorMittal after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 30.46  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ArcelorMittal contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ArcelorMittal SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.52% per day over the life of the 2023-02-03 option contract. With ArcelorMittal trading at USD30.49, that is roughly USD0.46. If you think that the market is fully incorporating ArcelorMittal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ArcelorMittal SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 24.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ArcelorMittal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ArcelorMittal in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.4436.3738.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
27.0229.1731.31
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
47.2050.1052.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
30.0931.1632.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ArcelorMittal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ArcelorMittal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ArcelorMittal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ArcelorMittal SA ADR.

ArcelorMittal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ArcelorMittal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ArcelorMittal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ArcelorMittal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ArcelorMittal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ArcelorMittal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ArcelorMittal's historical news coverage. ArcelorMittal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.31 and 32.61, respectively. We have considered ArcelorMittal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 30.49
30.46
After-hype Price
32.61
Upside
ArcelorMittal is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ArcelorMittal SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.

ArcelorMittal Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as ArcelorMittal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ArcelorMittal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ArcelorMittal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.44  2.15   0.03   0.30  5 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
30.4930.460.10 
3,583  

ArcelorMittal Hype Timeline

As of February 3, 2023 ArcelorMittal SA ADR is listed for 30.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. ArcelorMittal is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 30.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.1% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on ArcelorMittal is about 318.86% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 30.79. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.42. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. ArcelorMittal SA ADR has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.65. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.73. The firm last dividend was issued on the 13th of May 2022. ArcelorMittal had 1:3 split on the 22nd of May 2017. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days.
Additionally, see ArcelorMittal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

ArcelorMittal Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ArcelorMittal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ArcelorMittal's future price movements. Getting to know how ArcelorMittal rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ArcelorMittal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

ArcelorMittal Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ArcelorMittal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ArcelorMittal using various technical indicators. When you analyze ArcelorMittal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About ArcelorMittal Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of ArcelorMittal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ArcelorMittal SA ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ArcelorMittal based on analysis of ArcelorMittal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ArcelorMittal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ArcelorMittal's related companies.
 2020 2021 2022 2023 (projected)
Book Value per Share37.8245.4440.8944.37
Asset Turnover0.630.891.020.98

Story Coverage note for ArcelorMittal

The number of cover stories for ArcelorMittal depends on current market conditions and ArcelorMittal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ArcelorMittal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ArcelorMittal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ArcelorMittal Short Properties

ArcelorMittal's future price predictability will typically decrease when ArcelorMittal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ArcelorMittal SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ArcelorMittal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ArcelorMittal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments4.2 B
Additionally, see ArcelorMittal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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Is ArcelorMittal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ArcelorMittal. If investors know ArcelorMittal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ArcelorMittal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73) 
Market Capitalization
25.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06) 
Return On Assets
0.1037
Return On Equity
0.2608
The market value of ArcelorMittal SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ArcelorMittal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ArcelorMittal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ArcelorMittal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ArcelorMittal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ArcelorMittal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ArcelorMittal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ArcelorMittal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ArcelorMittal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.