Walmart Stock Price Prediction
| WMT Stock | USD 69.78 0.24 0.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.043 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.48 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.06 | Wall Street Target Price 73.49 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.52 |
Using Walmart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Walmart from the perspective of Walmart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Walmart using Walmart's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Walmart using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Walmart's stock price.
Walmart Short Interest
An investor who is long Walmart may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Walmart and may potentially protect profits, hedge Walmart with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 58.9123 | Short Percent 0.0085 | Short Ratio 2.69 | Shares Short Prior Month 40.8 M | 50 Day MA 67.3574 |
Walmart Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Walmart's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Walmart. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Walmart can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Walmart. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Walmart's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Walmart.
Walmart Implied Volatility | 20.47 |
Walmart's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Walmart stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Walmart's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Walmart stock will not fluctuate a lot when Walmart's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Walmart to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Walmart because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Walmart after-hype prediction price | USD 69.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Walmart contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Walmart will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.28% per day over the life of the 2024-08-02 option contract. With Walmart trading at USD 69.78, that is roughly USD 0.89 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Walmart's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Walmart options at the current volatility level of 20.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Walmart |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Walmart's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Walmart After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Walmart at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Walmart or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Walmart, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Walmart Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Walmart's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Walmart's historical news coverage. Walmart's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.57 and 71.05, respectively. We have considered Walmart's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Walmart is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Walmart is based on 3 months time horizon.
Walmart Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Walmart is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Walmart backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Walmart, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.24 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
69.78 | 69.81 | 0.04 |
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Walmart Hype Timeline
On the 27th of July Walmart is traded for 69.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Walmart is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 69.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Walmart is about 11160.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 69.78. The company reported the last year's revenue of 648.12 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 15.51 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 147.57 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Walmart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Walmart Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Walmart's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Walmart's future price movements. Getting to know how Walmart's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Walmart may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIG | Big Lots | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 7.69 | (14.17) | 45.14 | |
| AQUI | Aquagold International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| LBHIX | Thrivent High Yield | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 0.48 | (0.24) | 0.98 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.53 | (0.01) | 0.90 | (0.98) | 2.68 | |
| VIASP | Via Renewables | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.93 | (0.01) | 4.33 | (4.97) | 16.82 | |
| RRTLX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.19 | (0.08) | 0.59 | (0.50) | 1.48 | |
| OSHDF | Oshidori International Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 70082LAB3 | US70082LAB36 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | (0.04) | 1.36 | (1.45) | 24.27 | |
| SITKF | Sitka Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.69 | (8.33) | 22.50 |
Walmart Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Walmart price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Walmart using various technical indicators. When you analyze Walmart charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Walmart Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Walmart stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Walmart, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Walmart based on analysis of Walmart hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Walmart's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Walmart's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0158 | 0.0138 | 0.0106 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.68 | 0.69 | 0.86 |
Story Coverage note for Walmart
The number of cover stories for Walmart depends on current market conditions and Walmart's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Walmart is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Walmart's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Walmart Short Properties
Walmart's future price predictability will typically decrease when Walmart's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Walmart often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Walmart's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Walmart's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.9 B |
Additional Tools for Walmart Stock Analysis
When running Walmart's price analysis, check to measure Walmart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Walmart is operating at the current time. Most of Walmart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Walmart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Walmart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Walmart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.