Exxon Mobil Corp Stock Price Prediction

XOM Stock  USD 104.25  0.41  0.39%   
As of now, the relative strength index (rsi) of Exxon's share price is at 52. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Exxon's stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

52

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Exxon Mobil Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Exxon shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Exxon's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Exxon and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Exxon's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Exxon Mobil Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Exxon's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.15
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.73
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.6
Wall Street Target Price
115.26
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Exxon based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Exxon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Exxon over a specific investment horizon. Using Exxon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exxon Mobil Corp from the perspective of Exxon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Exxon using Exxon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Exxon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Exxon's stock price.

Exxon Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Exxon's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Exxon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Exxon stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Exxon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Exxon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Exxon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
105.9338
Short Percent
0.0235
Short Ratio
4.75
Shares Short Prior Month
82 M
50 Day MA
101.304

Exxon Mobil Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Exxon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exxon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exxon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exxon Mobil Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Exxon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Exxon.

Exxon Implied Volatility

    
  27.07  
Exxon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Exxon Mobil Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Exxon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Exxon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Exxon's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Exxon. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Exxon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Exxon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Exxon after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 104.27  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Exxon contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Exxon Mobil Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.69% per day over the life of the 2024-03-01 option contract. With Exxon trading at USD 104.25, that is roughly USD 1.76 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Exxon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Exxon Mobil Corp options at the current volatility level of 27.07%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Exxon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exxon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Exxon in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
93.83111.71112.86
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
101.02102.17103.32
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
110.20121.10134.42
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.682.062.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Exxon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Exxon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Exxon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Exxon Mobil Corp.

Exxon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Exxon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exxon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exxon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Exxon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Exxon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exxon's historical news coverage. Exxon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 103.12 and 105.42, respectively. We have considered Exxon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
104.25
103.12
Downside
104.27
After-hype Price
105.42
Upside
Exxon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exxon Mobil Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Exxon Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exxon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exxon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exxon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.15
  0.02 
 0.00  
7 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
104.25
104.27
0.02 
62.84  
Notes

Exxon Hype Timeline

On the 26th of February Exxon Mobil Corp is traded for 104.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Exxon is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 104.27 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 62.84%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.02% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Exxon is about 490.85% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 104.25. The company reported the last year's revenue of 334.7 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 36.01 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 133.72 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Exxon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Exxon Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Exxon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exxon's future price movements. Getting to know how Exxon rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exxon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Exxon Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Exxon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exxon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exxon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Exxon Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Exxon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Exxon based on analysis of Exxon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Exxon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Exxon's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.210.190.15
Interest Coverage98.43113.2116.18

Story Coverage note for Exxon

The number of cover stories for Exxon depends on current market conditions and Exxon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exxon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exxon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Exxon Short Properties

Exxon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exxon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exxon Mobil Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exxon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exxon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments31.6 B
When determining whether Exxon Mobil Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Exxon's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Exxon's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Exxon Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Exxon Stock analysis

When running Exxon's price analysis, check to measure Exxon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exxon is operating at the current time. Most of Exxon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exxon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exxon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exxon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Exxon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exxon. If investors know Exxon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exxon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Dividend Share
3.68
Earnings Share
8.89
Revenue Per Share
83.464
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.13)
The market value of Exxon Mobil Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exxon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exxon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exxon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exxon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exxon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exxon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exxon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exxon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.