Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AMPX Stock  USD 1.35  0.02  1.46%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amprius Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.36. Amprius Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Amprius Technologies' Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 7.26 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.15 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 74.6 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to drop to about (16.4 M) in 2024.
Most investors in Amprius Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amprius Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amprius Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
45.8 M
Current Value
34.9 M
Quarterly Volatility
21.6 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Amprius Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Amprius Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Amprius Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of July 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amprius Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amprius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amprius Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

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Amprius Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amprius Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amprius Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.83, respectively. We have considered Amprius Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.35
1.36
Expected Value
7.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amprius Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amprius Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.382
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1187
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0748
SAESum of the absolute errors7.358
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Amprius Technologies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Amprius Technologies. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Amprius Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amprius Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amprius Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.357.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.234.6211.09
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.2014.5016.10
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Amprius Technologies

For every potential investor in Amprius, whether a beginner or expert, Amprius Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amprius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amprius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amprius Technologies' price trends.

Amprius Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amprius Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amprius Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amprius Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amprius Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amprius Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amprius Technologies' current price.

Amprius Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amprius Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amprius Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amprius Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amprius Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amprius Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amprius Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amprius Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amprius stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Amprius Stock Analysis

When running Amprius Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Amprius Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amprius Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Amprius Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amprius Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amprius Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amprius Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.