Ford Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

F Stock  USD 12.16  0.05  0.41%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ford Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 11.73 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.34. Ford Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ford stock prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ford's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ford's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ford's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ford fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Ford's Fixed Asset Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The Ford's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.76, while Receivables Turnover is projected to decrease to 2.70. . The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 2.7 B. The Ford's current Net Loss is estimated to increase to about (2.2 B).

Open Interest Against 2024-05-31 Ford Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ford's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ford's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ford stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ford's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ford's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ford is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ford. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Ford cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ford's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ford's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Ford is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ford Motor value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ford Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ford Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 11.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ford Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ford's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ford Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest FordFord Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ford Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ford's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ford's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.77 and 13.69, respectively. We have considered Ford's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.16
11.73
Expected Value
13.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ford stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ford stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.6954
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.235
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0189
SAESum of the absolute errors14.3369
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ford Motor. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ford. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ford

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ford Motor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ford's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.2012.1614.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.9711.9313.89
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.0112.1212.22
Details
27 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.2813.4914.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ford. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ford's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ford's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ford Motor.

Other Forecasting Options for Ford

For every potential investor in Ford, whether a beginner or expert, Ford's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ford Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ford. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ford's price trends.

Ford Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ford stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ford could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ford by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ford Motor Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ford's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ford's current price.

Ford Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ford stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ford shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ford stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ford Motor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ford Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ford's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ford's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ford stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Ford Motor is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ford's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ford's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ford Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Ford Motor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ford's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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When running Ford's price analysis, check to measure Ford's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ford is operating at the current time. Most of Ford's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ford's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ford's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ford to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ford's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ford. If investors know Ford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ford listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.25)
Dividend Share
0.6
Earnings Share
0.97
Revenue Per Share
44.426
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.031
The market value of Ford Motor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ford's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ford's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ford's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ford's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ford's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ford is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ford's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.