Healthcare Realty Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HR Stock  USD 16.50  0.04  0.24%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Healthcare Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 16.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.61. Healthcare Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Healthcare Realty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Healthcare Realty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Healthcare Realty fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Healthcare Realty's Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 06/15/2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 6.00, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 5.02. . As of 06/15/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 402.6 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 34.2 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Healthcare Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Healthcare Realty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Healthcare Realty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Healthcare Realty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Healthcare Realty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Healthcare Realty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Healthcare Realty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Healthcare. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Healthcare Realty cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Healthcare Realty's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Healthcare Realty's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Healthcare Realty is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Healthcare Realty Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Healthcare Realty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of June 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Healthcare Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 16.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Healthcare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Healthcare Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Healthcare Realty Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Healthcare RealtyHealthcare Realty Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Healthcare Realty Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Healthcare Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Healthcare Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.49 and 18.47, respectively. We have considered Healthcare Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.50
16.98
Expected Value
18.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Healthcare Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Healthcare Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.3935
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2194
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0148
SAESum of the absolute errors13.6053
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Healthcare Realty Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Healthcare Realty. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Healthcare Realty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Healthcare Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Healthcare Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.1916.6918.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.8918.5420.04
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
16.9018.5720.61
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.13-0.070.03
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Healthcare Realty

For every potential investor in Healthcare, whether a beginner or expert, Healthcare Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Healthcare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Healthcare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Healthcare Realty's price trends.

Healthcare Realty Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Healthcare Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Healthcare Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Healthcare Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Healthcare Realty Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Healthcare Realty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Healthcare Realty's current price.

Healthcare Realty Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Healthcare Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Healthcare Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Healthcare Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Healthcare Realty Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Healthcare Realty Risk Indicators

The analysis of Healthcare Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Healthcare Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting healthcare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Additional Tools for Healthcare Stock Analysis

When running Healthcare Realty's price analysis, check to measure Healthcare Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Healthcare Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Healthcare Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Healthcare Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Healthcare Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Healthcare Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.