Jabil Circuit Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JBL Stock  USD 112.17  1.13  1.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jabil Circuit on the next trading day is expected to be 115.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.04. Jabil Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Jabil Circuit's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Jabil Circuit's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Jabil Circuit fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Jabil Circuit's Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 7.32 this year, although the value of Fixed Asset Turnover will most likely fall to 8.78. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 191.8 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 987.7 M this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-08-16 Jabil Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Jabil Circuit's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Jabil Circuit's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Jabil Circuit stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Jabil Circuit's open interest, investors have to compare it to Jabil Circuit's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Jabil Circuit is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Jabil. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Jabil Circuit cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jabil Circuit's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jabil Circuit's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1991-08-31
Previous Quarter
2.6 B
Current Value
2.5 B
Quarterly Volatility
496.3 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Jabil Circuit is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Jabil Circuit value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Jabil Circuit Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jabil Circuit on the next trading day is expected to be 115.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23, mean absolute percentage error of 8.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jabil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jabil Circuit's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jabil Circuit Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Jabil CircuitJabil Circuit Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Jabil Circuit Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jabil Circuit's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jabil Circuit's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 112.94 and 117.47, respectively. We have considered Jabil Circuit's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
112.17
112.94
Downside
115.20
Expected Value
117.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jabil Circuit stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jabil Circuit stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.2979
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.2301
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors136.0374
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Jabil Circuit. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Jabil Circuit. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Jabil Circuit

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jabil Circuit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jabil Circuit's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
110.23112.49114.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
101.29125.16127.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
105.65114.40123.14
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
129.48142.29157.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jabil Circuit. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jabil Circuit's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jabil Circuit's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Jabil Circuit.

Other Forecasting Options for Jabil Circuit

For every potential investor in Jabil, whether a beginner or expert, Jabil Circuit's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jabil Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jabil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jabil Circuit's price trends.

Jabil Circuit Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jabil Circuit stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jabil Circuit could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jabil Circuit by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jabil Circuit Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jabil Circuit's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jabil Circuit's current price.

Jabil Circuit Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jabil Circuit stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jabil Circuit shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jabil Circuit stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jabil Circuit entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jabil Circuit Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jabil Circuit's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jabil Circuit's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jabil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Jabil Stock

When determining whether Jabil Circuit is a strong investment it is important to analyze Jabil Circuit's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Jabil Circuit's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Jabil Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jabil Circuit to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Jabil Stock please use our How to buy in Jabil Stock guide.
You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jabil Circuit. If investors know Jabil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jabil Circuit listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Dividend Share
0.32
Earnings Share
11.02
Revenue Per Share
240.182
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.20)
The market value of Jabil Circuit is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jabil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jabil Circuit's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jabil Circuit's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jabil Circuit's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jabil Circuit's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jabil Circuit's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jabil Circuit is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jabil Circuit's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.