Marfrig Global Foods Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 1.67

MRRTY Stock  USD 2.00  0.07  3.38%   
Marfrig Global's future price is the expected price of Marfrig Global instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Marfrig Global Foods performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Marfrig Global Backtesting, Marfrig Global Valuation, Marfrig Global Correlation, Marfrig Global Hype Analysis, Marfrig Global Volatility, Marfrig Global History as well as Marfrig Global Performance.
  
Please specify Marfrig Global's target price for which you would like Marfrig Global odds to be computed.

Marfrig Global Target Price Odds to finish over 1.67

The tendency of Marfrig Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 1.67  in 90 days
 2.00 90 days 1.67 
about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marfrig Global to stay above $ 1.67  in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Marfrig Global Foods probability density function shows the probability of Marfrig Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marfrig Global Foods price to stay between $ 1.67  and its current price of $2.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.85 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Marfrig Global Foods has a beta of -0.43. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Marfrig Global are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Marfrig Global Foods is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Marfrig Global Foods has an alpha of 0.1404, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Marfrig Global Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Marfrig Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marfrig Global Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marfrig Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.102.005.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.635.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marfrig Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marfrig Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marfrig Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marfrig Global Foods.

Marfrig Global Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marfrig Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marfrig Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marfrig Global Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marfrig Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.14
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.43
σ
Overall volatility
0.11
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Marfrig Global Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marfrig Global for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marfrig Global Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Marfrig Global Foods had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days

Marfrig Global Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marfrig Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marfrig Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marfrig Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding676.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.4 B

Marfrig Global Technical Analysis

Marfrig Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marfrig Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marfrig Global Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marfrig Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Marfrig Global Predictive Forecast Models

Marfrig Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marfrig Global's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marfrig Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Marfrig Global Foods

Checking the ongoing alerts about Marfrig Global for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Marfrig Global Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Marfrig Global Foods had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days

Complementary Tools for Marfrig Pink Sheet analysis

When running Marfrig Global's price analysis, check to measure Marfrig Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marfrig Global is operating at the current time. Most of Marfrig Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marfrig Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marfrig Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marfrig Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Marfrig Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marfrig Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marfrig Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.