Comtech Telecommunications Corp Stock Price Prediction

CMTL Stock  USD 2.29  0.17  8.02%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Comtech Telecommunicatio's the stock price is about 60 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Comtech, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

60

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Comtech Telecommunicatio's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Comtech Telecommunicatio and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Comtech Telecommunicatio's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Comtech Telecommunications Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Comtech Telecommunicatio's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
5.87
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.15
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.71
Wall Street Target Price
9.25
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.22
Using Comtech Telecommunicatio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Comtech Telecommunications Corp from the perspective of Comtech Telecommunicatio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Comtech Telecommunicatio using Comtech Telecommunicatio's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Comtech using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Comtech Telecommunicatio's stock price.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Implied Volatility

    
  183.0  
Comtech Telecommunicatio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Comtech Telecommunications Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Comtech Telecommunicatio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Comtech Telecommunicatio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Comtech Telecommunicatio's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Comtech Telecommunicatio to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Comtech because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Comtech Telecommunicatio after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 2.25  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Comtech Telecommunicatio Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comtech Telecommunicatio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.285.5913.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.042.099.58
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.3315.7517.48
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.150.080.19
Details

Comtech Telecommunicatio After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Comtech Telecommunicatio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Comtech Telecommunicatio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Comtech Telecommunicatio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Comtech Telecommunicatio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Comtech Telecommunicatio's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Comtech Telecommunicatio's historical news coverage. Comtech Telecommunicatio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 9.74, respectively. We have considered Comtech Telecommunicatio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
2.29
2.25
After-hype Price
9.74
Upside
Comtech Telecommunicatio is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Comtech Telecommunicatio is based on 3 months time horizon.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Comtech Telecommunicatio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Comtech Telecommunicatio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Comtech Telecommunicatio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.80 
7.56
  0.04 
 0.00  
11 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.29
2.25
1.75 
15,120  
Notes

Comtech Telecommunicatio Hype Timeline

Comtech Telecommunicatio is currently traded for 2.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Comtech is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.75%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.8%. The volatility of related hype on Comtech Telecommunicatio is about 453600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.29. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.16. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Comtech Telecommunicatio has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.34. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.7. The firm last dividend was issued on the 17th of January 2023. Comtech Telecommunicatio had 3:2 split on the 5th of April 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Comtech Telecommunicatio Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Comtech Telecommunicatio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Comtech Telecommunicatio's future price movements. Getting to know how Comtech Telecommunicatio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Comtech Telecommunicatio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DZSIDZS Inc 0.19 9 per month 4.91  0.03  9.29 (9.03) 46.92 
KVHIKVH Industries 0.01 7 per month 1.89  0.08  3.37 (2.63) 11.54 
AVNWAviat Networks(0.26)9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 3.20 (2.68) 19.79 
HLITHarmonic 0.34 12 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.36 (3.10) 17.98 
TSATTelesat Corp 0.08 6 per month 0.00 (0.05) 6.48 (5.28) 21.96 
KNKnowles Cor(0.18)10 per month 1.09  0.12  2.59 (2.11) 6.61 
ITRNIturan Location and(0.70)10 per month 0.00 (0.03) 2.74 (2.48) 7.32 
MYNAMynaric AG ADR 0.01 2 per month 4.47  0.01  8.11 (8.71) 27.09 
TESSTESSCO Technologies Incorporated(0.01)10 per month 0.00  0.20  0.23 (0.23) 1.03 
SILCSilicom 0.25 4 per month 1.85  0.03  2.65 (2.99) 7.86 
CLFDClearfield 0.47 11 per month 1.84  0.17  4.12 (3.16) 16.38 
EXTRExtreme Networks(0.18)7 per month 1.84  0.02  3.36 (3.03) 13.67 

Comtech Telecommunicatio Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Comtech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Comtech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Comtech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Comtech Telecommunicatio Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Comtech Telecommunicatio stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Comtech Telecommunications Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Comtech Telecommunicatio based on analysis of Comtech Telecommunicatio hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Comtech Telecommunicatio's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Comtech Telecommunicatio's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.03650.03040.0350.0382
Price To Sales Ratio0.620.520.470.79

Story Coverage note for Comtech Telecommunicatio

The number of cover stories for Comtech Telecommunicatio depends on current market conditions and Comtech Telecommunicatio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Comtech Telecommunicatio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Comtech Telecommunicatio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Short Properties

Comtech Telecommunicatio's future price predictability will typically decrease when Comtech Telecommunicatio's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Comtech Telecommunications Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Comtech Telecommunicatio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comtech Telecommunicatio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding28 M
Cash And Short Term Investments19 M

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Comtech Stock

When determining whether Comtech Telecommunicatio is a strong investment it is important to analyze Comtech Telecommunicatio's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Comtech Telecommunicatio's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Comtech Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Comtech Telecommunicatio Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comtech Telecommunicatio. If investors know Comtech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comtech Telecommunicatio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
5.87
Earnings Share
(1.70)
Revenue Per Share
20.109
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.004
Return On Assets
0.0083
The market value of Comtech Telecommunicatio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comtech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comtech Telecommunicatio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comtech Telecommunicatio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comtech Telecommunicatio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comtech Telecommunicatio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comtech Telecommunicatio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Comtech Telecommunicatio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comtech Telecommunicatio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.