Microsoft Stock Market Value

MSFT Stock  USD 430.16  3.16  0.74%   
Microsoft's market value is the price at which a share of Microsoft trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Microsoft investors about its performance. Microsoft is selling for under 430.16 as of the 27th of May 2024; that is 0.74 percent increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's last reported lowest price was 424.41.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Microsoft and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Microsoft over a given investment horizon. Check out Microsoft Correlation, Microsoft Volatility and Microsoft Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Microsoft.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
Symbol

Microsoft Price To Book Ratio

Is Microsoft's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.2
Dividend Share
2.93
Earnings Share
11.53
Revenue Per Share
31.834
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.17
The market value of Microsoft is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Microsoft is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Microsoft 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Microsoft's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Microsoft.
0.00
04/27/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
05/27/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Microsoft on April 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Microsoft or generate 0.0% return on investment in Microsoft over 30 days. Microsoft is related to or competes with Palo Alto, Uipath, Block, Adobe Systems, Crowdstrike Holdings, Palantir TechnologiesInc, and Zscaler. Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide More

Microsoft Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Microsoft's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Microsoft upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Microsoft Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Microsoft's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Microsoft's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Microsoft historical prices to predict the future Microsoft's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
428.91430.16431.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
424.61425.86473.18
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
425.38426.63427.87
Details
57 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
357.03392.34435.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Microsoft.

Microsoft Backtested Returns

We consider Microsoft very steady. Microsoft has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0763, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0763% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Microsoft, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Microsoft's Downside Deviation of 1.23, risk adjusted performance of 0.0416, and Mean Deviation of 0.946 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0951%. Microsoft has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.08, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Microsoft returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Microsoft is expected to follow. Microsoft right now secures a risk of 1.25%. Please verify Microsoft jensen alpha, skewness, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and day median price , to decide if Microsoft will be following its current price movements.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.74  

Good predictability

Microsoft has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Microsoft time series from 27th of April 2024 to 12th of May 2024 and 12th of May 2024 to 27th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Microsoft price movement. The serial correlation of 0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Microsoft price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.74
Spearman Rank Test0.81
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance33.38

Microsoft lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Microsoft stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Microsoft's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Microsoft returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Microsoft has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Microsoft regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Microsoft stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Microsoft stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Microsoft stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Microsoft Lagged Returns

When evaluating Microsoft's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Microsoft stock have on its future price. Microsoft autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Microsoft autocorrelation shows the relationship between Microsoft stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Microsoft.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Pair Trading with Microsoft

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Microsoft position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Microsoft will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Microsoft could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Microsoft when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Microsoft - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Microsoft to buy it.
The correlation of Microsoft is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Microsoft moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Microsoft moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Microsoft can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Microsoft is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Microsoft Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microsoft Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microsoft Stock:
Check out Microsoft Correlation, Microsoft Volatility and Microsoft Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Microsoft.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Microsoft technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Microsoft technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Microsoft trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...