Microsoft Stock Price Prediction
| MSFT Stock | USD 416.06 0.48 0.12% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
58
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.097 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.17 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.8 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.3 | Wall Street Target Price 496.38 |
Using Microsoft hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Microsoft from the perspective of Microsoft response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Microsoft Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Microsoft's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Microsoft. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Microsoft can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Microsoft. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Microsoft's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Microsoft.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Microsoft to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Microsoft because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Microsoft after-hype prediction price | USD 415.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Microsoft |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Microsoft After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Microsoft at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Microsoft or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Microsoft, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Microsoft Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Microsoft's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Microsoft's historical news coverage. Microsoft's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 414.49 and 417.01, respectively. We have considered Microsoft's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Microsoft is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microsoft is based on 3 months time horizon.
Microsoft Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Microsoft is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Microsoft backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Microsoft, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.26 | 0.31 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
416.06 | 415.75 | 0.07 |
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Microsoft Hype Timeline
Microsoft is now traded for 416.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.31, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Microsoft is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 415.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 64.62%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Microsoft is about 1800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 416.07. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.25. Microsoft recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.82. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 18th of February 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Microsoft Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Microsoft's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Microsoft's future price movements. Getting to know how Microsoft's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Microsoft may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings | 2.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.84 | (3.99) | 15.09 | |
| OKTA | Okta Inc | (0.19) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.73 | (4.18) | 21.01 | |
| NET | Cloudflare | (2.45) | 9 per month | 2.29 | (0.04) | 5.04 | (4.00) | 11.71 | |
| MDB | MongoDB | (0.35) | 9 per month | 2.75 | (0.02) | 4.57 | (4.81) | 23.05 | |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | (4.82) | 10 per month | 2.05 | (0.04) | 2.77 | (3.17) | 10.84 | |
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | 3.95 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.40 | (2.89) | 11.71 | |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 0.62 | 7 per month | 1.94 | 0.18 | 5.34 | (3.01) | 16.85 | |
| ZS | Zscaler | 1.79 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.32 | (3.40) | 22.12 | |
| PATH | Uipath Inc | 0.02 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.53 | (3.63) | 9.64 |
Microsoft Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Microsoft price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Microsoft using various technical indicators. When you analyze Microsoft charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Microsoft Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Microsoft stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Microsoft, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Microsoft based on analysis of Microsoft hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Microsoft's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Microsoft's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00942 | 0.007809 | 0.006415 | 0.006094 | Price To Sales Ratio | 9.71 | 11.97 | 13.85 | 8.91 |
Story Coverage note for Microsoft
The number of cover stories for Microsoft depends on current market conditions and Microsoft's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Microsoft is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Microsoft's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Microsoft Short Properties
Microsoft's future price predictability will typically decrease when Microsoft's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Microsoft often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Microsoft's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microsoft's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.5 B |
Additional Tools for Microsoft Stock Analysis
When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.