Microsoft Stock Price Prediction

MSFT Stock  USD 415.50  1.86  0.45%   
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Microsoft's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Microsoft's stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

52

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Microsoft stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Microsoft shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Microsoft's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Microsoft and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Microsoft's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Microsoft, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Microsoft's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.332
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.43
EPS Estimate Current Year
11.66
EPS Estimate Next Year
13.36
Wall Street Target Price
456.32
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Microsoft based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Microsoft stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Microsoft over a specific investment horizon. Using Microsoft hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Microsoft from the perspective of Microsoft response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Microsoft using Microsoft's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Microsoft using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Microsoft's stock price.

Microsoft Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Microsoft's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Microsoft. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Microsoft stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Microsoft may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Microsoft and may potentially protect profits, hedge Microsoft with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
352.8726
Short Percent
0.0057
Short Ratio
1.69
Shares Short Prior Month
49.9 M
50 Day MA
395.3176

Microsoft Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Microsoft's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Microsoft. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Microsoft can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Microsoft. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Microsoft's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Microsoft.

Microsoft Implied Volatility

    
  20.87  
Microsoft's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Microsoft stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Microsoft's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Microsoft stock will not fluctuate a lot when Microsoft's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Microsoft. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Microsoft to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Microsoft because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Microsoft after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 414.72  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Microsoft contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Microsoft will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.3% per day over the life of the 2024-03-08 option contract. With Microsoft trading at USD 415.5, that is roughly USD 5.42 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Microsoft's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Microsoft options at the current volatility level of 20.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Microsoft in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
367.57368.60457.05
Details
56 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
357.03392.34435.50
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.782.833.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Microsoft.

Microsoft After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Microsoft at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Microsoft or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Microsoft, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Microsoft Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Microsoft's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Microsoft's historical news coverage. Microsoft's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 413.69 and 415.75, respectively. We have considered Microsoft's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
415.50
413.69
Downside
414.72
After-hype Price
415.75
Upside
Microsoft is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microsoft is based on 3 months time horizon.

Microsoft Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Microsoft is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Microsoft backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Microsoft, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.20 
1.03
  0.78 
  0.13 
5 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
415.50
414.72
0.19 
26.28  
Notes

Microsoft Hype Timeline

Microsoft is now traded for 415.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.78 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Microsoft is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 414.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 26.28%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.19% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Microsoft is about 159.51% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 415.37. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.11. Microsoft recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 18th of February 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.

Microsoft Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Microsoft's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Microsoft's future price movements. Getting to know how Microsoft rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Microsoft may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Microsoft Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Microsoft price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Microsoft using various technical indicators. When you analyze Microsoft charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Microsoft Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Microsoft stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Microsoft, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Microsoft based on analysis of Microsoft hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Microsoft's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Microsoft's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.180.27
Interest Coverage373.97392.46

Story Coverage note for Microsoft

The number of cover stories for Microsoft depends on current market conditions and Microsoft's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Microsoft is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Microsoft's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Microsoft Short Properties

Microsoft's future price predictability will typically decrease when Microsoft's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Microsoft often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Microsoft's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microsoft's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments111.3 B
When determining whether Microsoft is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Microsoft Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microsoft Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microsoft Stock:
Check out Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Microsoft's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.332
Dividend Share
2.86
Earnings Share
11.05
Revenue Per Share
30.612
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.176
The market value of Microsoft is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Microsoft is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.