Microsoft Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 441.58

MSFT Stock  USD 441.58  0.52  0.12%   
Microsoft's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Microsoft. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Microsoft based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Microsoft over a specific time period. For example, 2024-06-14 CALL at $442.5 is a CALL option contract on Microsoft's common stock with a strick price of 442.5 expiring on 2024-06-14. The contract was last traded on 2024-06-13 at 15:59:59 for $1.77 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.55, and an ask price of $1.84. The implied volatility as of the 14th of June 2024 is 23.74. View All Microsoft options

Closest to current price Microsoft long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Microsoft's future price is the expected price of Microsoft instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Microsoft performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Microsoft Backtesting, Microsoft Valuation, Microsoft Correlation, Microsoft Hype Analysis, Microsoft Volatility, Microsoft History as well as Microsoft Performance.
For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
  
Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to gain to 160.61 in 2024, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 8.75 in 2024. Please specify Microsoft's target price for which you would like Microsoft odds to be computed.

Microsoft Target Price Odds to finish over 441.58

The tendency of Microsoft Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 441.58 90 days 441.58 
about 1.27
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microsoft to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.27 (This Microsoft probability density function shows the probability of Microsoft Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Microsoft has a beta of 0.79. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Microsoft average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Microsoft will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Microsoft has an alpha of 0.1031, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Microsoft Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Microsoft

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
440.39441.58442.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
397.42462.61463.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
439.62440.80441.99
Details
58 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
357.03392.34435.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Microsoft.

Microsoft Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microsoft is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microsoft's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microsoft, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microsoft within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.10
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.79
σ
Overall volatility
10.67
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Microsoft Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microsoft for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microsoft can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 13th of June 2024 Microsoft paid $ 0.75 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Sylogist Announces Addition of Experienced SaaS Executive to its Board of Directors and Annual General Special Meeting Results

Microsoft Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Microsoft Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Microsoft's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microsoft's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments111.3 B

Microsoft Technical Analysis

Microsoft's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Microsoft Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Microsoft. In general, you should focus on analyzing Microsoft Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Microsoft Predictive Forecast Models

Microsoft's time-series forecasting models is one of many Microsoft's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Microsoft's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Microsoft

Checking the ongoing alerts about Microsoft for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Microsoft help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 13th of June 2024 Microsoft paid $ 0.75 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Sylogist Announces Addition of Experienced SaaS Executive to its Board of Directors and Annual General Special Meeting Results

Additional Tools for Microsoft Stock Analysis

When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.