Affirm Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| AFRM Stock | USD 31.65 0.43 1.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Affirm Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Affirm Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Affirm Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Affirm Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Affirm Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Affirm Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Affirm Holdings' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.67) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.52) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.85) | Wall Street Target Price 37.05 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.72) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Affirm Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Affirm stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Affirm Holdings over a specific investment horizon. Using Affirm Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Affirm Holdings from the perspective of Affirm Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Affirm Holdings using Affirm Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Affirm using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Affirm Holdings' stock price.
Affirm Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Affirm Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Affirm. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Affirm Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Affirm Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Affirm Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Affirm Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 29.6123 | Short Percent 0.1431 | Short Ratio 5.47 | Shares Short Prior Month 29.9 M | 50 Day MA 35.6381 |
Affirm Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Affirm Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Affirm. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Affirm can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Affirm Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Affirm Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Affirm Holdings.
Affirm Holdings Implied Volatility | 131.63 |
Affirm Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Affirm Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Affirm Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Affirm Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Affirm Holdings' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Affirm Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Affirm Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Affirm because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Affirm Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 32.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Affirm contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Affirm Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 8.23% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Affirm Holdings trading at USD 31.65, that is roughly USD 2.6 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Affirm Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Affirm Holdings options at the current volatility level of 131.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Affirm |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Affirm Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Affirm Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Affirm Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Affirm Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Affirm Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Affirm Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Affirm Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Affirm Holdings' historical news coverage. Affirm Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.80 and 36.86, respectively. We have considered Affirm Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Affirm Holdings is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Affirm Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Affirm Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Affirm Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Affirm Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Affirm Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 4.49 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
31.65 | 32.33 | 0.78 |
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Affirm Holdings Hype Timeline
Affirm Holdings is presently traded for 31.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.26. Affirm is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 32.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.78%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Affirm Holdings is about 549.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.91. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.59 B. Net Loss for the year was (985.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.01 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Affirm Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Affirm Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Affirm Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Affirm Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Affirm Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Affirm Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | 3.39 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.19 | (2.62) | 35.18 | |
| ZS | Zscaler | (1.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.02 | (4.36) | 18.41 | |
| NET | Cloudflare | 0.08 | 12 per month | 2.30 | 0.01 | 4.61 | (3.65) | 24.93 | |
| OKTA | Okta Inc | 0.23 | 11 per month | 1.88 | 0.04 | 3.70 | (2.96) | 27.01 | |
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | 6.22 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.66 | (3.70) | 17.01 | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | (2.10) | 9 per month | 1.08 | (0.02) | 2.11 | (2.07) | 5.31 | |
| PATH | Uipath Inc | 0.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.75 | (5.24) | 15.39 | |
| CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings | 1.60 | 9 per month | 2.54 | (0.02) | 3.76 | (3.90) | 14.87 | |
| MDB | MongoDB | 2.04 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.55 | (4.29) | 14.33 | |
| ORCL | Oracle | (2.31) | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0 | 2.22 | (2.15) | 14.00 |
Affirm Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Affirm price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Affirm using various technical indicators. When you analyze Affirm charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Affirm Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Affirm Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Affirm Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Affirm Holdings based on analysis of Affirm Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Affirm Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Affirm Holdings's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Graham Number | 22.92 | 25.38 | 22.84 | 13.9 | Receivables Turnover | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.35 |
Story Coverage note for Affirm Holdings
The number of cover stories for Affirm Holdings depends on current market conditions and Affirm Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Affirm Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Affirm Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Affirm Holdings Short Properties
Affirm Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Affirm Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Affirm Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Affirm Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Affirm Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 295.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Check out Affirm Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Affirm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Affirm Holdings guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Affirm Stock analysis
When running Affirm Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Affirm Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Affirm Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Affirm Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Affirm Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Affirm Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Affirm Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Affirm Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Affirm Holdings. If investors know Affirm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Affirm Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.49) | Revenue Per Share 6.338 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.479 | Return On Assets (0.07) | Return On Equity (0.29) |
The market value of Affirm Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Affirm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Affirm Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Affirm Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Affirm Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Affirm Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Affirm Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Affirm Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Affirm Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.