Alarm Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 67.42
| ALRM Stock | USD 68.01 0.08 0.12% |
Alarm |
Alarm Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 67.42
The tendency of Alarm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 67.42 or more in 90 days |
| 68.01 | 90 days | 67.42 | about 21.69 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alarm Holdings to drop to $ 67.42 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.69 (This Alarm Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Alarm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alarm Holdings price to stay between $ 67.42 and its current price of $68.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.63 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alarm Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally Alarm Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Alarm Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alarm Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alarm Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alarm Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alarm Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alarm Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alarm Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alarm Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alarm Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Alarm Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alarm Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alarm Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alarm Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Alarm Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alarm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alarm Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alarm Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 697 M |
Alarm Holdings Technical Analysis
Alarm Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alarm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alarm Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alarm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alarm Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Alarm Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Alarm Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alarm Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alarm Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alarm Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alarm Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alarm Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Check out Alarm Holdings Backtesting, Alarm Holdings Valuation, Alarm Holdings Correlation, Alarm Holdings Hype Analysis, Alarm Holdings Volatility, Alarm Holdings History as well as Alarm Holdings Performance. To learn how to invest in Alarm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alarm Holdings guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for Alarm Stock analysis
When running Alarm Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Alarm Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alarm Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Alarm Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alarm Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alarm Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alarm Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alarm Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alarm Holdings. If investors know Alarm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alarm Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alarm Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alarm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alarm Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alarm Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alarm Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alarm Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alarm Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alarm Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alarm Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.