Avalon Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.42
| AWX Stock | USD 2.34 0.03 1.27% |
Avalon |
Avalon Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 2.42
The tendency of Avalon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 2.42 or more in 90 days |
| 2.34 | 90 days | 2.42 | about 9.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avalon Holdings to move over $ 2.42 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.57 (This Avalon Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Avalon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avalon Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 2.34 and $ 2.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.2 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Avalon Holdings has a beta of -0.0786. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Avalon Holdings are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Avalon Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Avalon Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Avalon Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Avalon Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avalon Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avalon Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avalon Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avalon Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avalon Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avalon Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avalon Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.0043 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.1 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Avalon Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avalon Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avalon Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avalon Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 35.02 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.58, which is OK given its current industry classification. Avalon Holdings has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Avalon Holdings until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Avalon Holdings' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Avalon Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Avalon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Avalon Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 80.52 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.77 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.96 M. | |
| About 36.0% of Avalon Holdings shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Acquisition by Advisory Research Microcap Value Fund, L.p. of 1000 shares of Avalon Holdings at 4.27 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Avalon Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avalon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avalon Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avalon Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 M |
Avalon Holdings Technical Analysis
Avalon Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avalon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avalon Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avalon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avalon Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Avalon Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Avalon Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avalon Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avalon Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avalon Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avalon Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avalon Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 35.02 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.58, which is OK given its current industry classification. Avalon Holdings has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Avalon Holdings until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Avalon Holdings' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Avalon Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Avalon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Avalon Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 80.52 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.77 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.96 M. | |
| About 36.0% of Avalon Holdings shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Acquisition by Advisory Research Microcap Value Fund, L.p. of 1000 shares of Avalon Holdings at 4.27 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Avalon Holdings Backtesting, Avalon Holdings Valuation, Avalon Holdings Correlation, Avalon Holdings Hype Analysis, Avalon Holdings Volatility, Avalon Holdings History as well as Avalon Holdings Performance. For more information on how to buy Avalon Stock please use our How to Invest in Avalon Holdings guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for Avalon Stock analysis
When running Avalon Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Avalon Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avalon Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Avalon Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avalon Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avalon Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avalon Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk |
Is Avalon Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avalon Holdings. If investors know Avalon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avalon Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Earnings Share (0.28) | Revenue Per Share 20.756 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.022 | Return On Assets 0.0033 |
The market value of Avalon Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avalon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avalon Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avalon Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avalon Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avalon Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avalon Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avalon Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avalon Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.