Compx International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.87
| CIX Stock | USD 24.09 0.56 2.27% |
CompX |
CompX International Target Price Odds to finish below 14.87
The tendency of CompX Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.87 or more in 90 days |
| 24.09 | 90 days | 14.87 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CompX International to drop to $ 14.87 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CompX International probability density function shows the probability of CompX Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CompX International price to stay between $ 14.87 and its current price of $24.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.64 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.64 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, CompX International will likely underperform. Additionally CompX International has an alpha of 0.2323, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CompX International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CompX International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CompX International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CompX International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CompX International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CompX International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CompX International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CompX International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CompX International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
CompX International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CompX International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CompX International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CompX International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CompX International has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| CompX International is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| CompX International has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Technical Data - Stock Traders Daily |
CompX International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CompX Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CompX International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CompX International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 76.7 M |
CompX International Technical Analysis
CompX International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CompX Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CompX International. In general, you should focus on analyzing CompX Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CompX International Predictive Forecast Models
CompX International's time-series forecasting models is one of many CompX International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CompX International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CompX International
Checking the ongoing alerts about CompX International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CompX International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CompX International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CompX International has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| CompX International is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| CompX International has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Technical Data - Stock Traders Daily |
Check out CompX International Backtesting, CompX International Valuation, CompX International Correlation, CompX International Hype Analysis, CompX International Volatility, CompX International History as well as CompX International Performance. For more information on how to buy CompX Stock please use our How to Invest in CompX International guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for CompX Stock analysis
When running CompX International's price analysis, check to measure CompX International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CompX International is operating at the current time. Most of CompX International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CompX International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CompX International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CompX International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CompX International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CompX International. If investors know CompX will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CompX International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | Dividend Share 1.05 | Earnings Share 1.66 | Revenue Per Share 12.841 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
The market value of CompX International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CompX that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CompX International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CompX International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CompX International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CompX International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CompX International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CompX International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CompX International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.