National Beverage Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 48.12
| FIZZ Stock | USD 43.56 0.05 0.11% |
Closest to current price National long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
National |
National Beverage Target Price Odds to finish over 48.12
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 48.12 or more in 90 days |
| 43.56 | 90 days | 48.12 | about 47.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Beverage to move over $ 48.12 or more in 90 days from now is about 47.46 (This National Beverage Corp probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Beverage Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 43.56 and $ 48.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days National Beverage has a beta of 0.74. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, National Beverage average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding National Beverage Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally National Beverage Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. National Beverage Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Beverage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Beverage Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Beverage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Beverage Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Beverage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Beverage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Beverage Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Beverage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.74 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
National Beverage Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Beverage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Beverage Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Beverage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Beverage is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| National Beverage has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from ibtimes.com: David Pecker Reveals Trump Hosted Thank You Dinner For Hush Money Deals |
National Beverage Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Beverage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Beverage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 93.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 158.1 M |
National Beverage Technical Analysis
National Beverage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Beverage Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Beverage Predictive Forecast Models
National Beverage's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Beverage's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Beverage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Beverage Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Beverage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Beverage Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Beverage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Beverage is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| National Beverage has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from ibtimes.com: David Pecker Reveals Trump Hosted Thank You Dinner For Hush Money Deals |
Check out National Beverage Backtesting, National Beverage Valuation, National Beverage Correlation, National Beverage Hype Analysis, National Beverage Volatility, National Beverage History as well as National Beverage Performance. Note that the National Beverage Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Beverage's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Beverage's price analysis, check to measure National Beverage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Beverage is operating at the current time. Most of National Beverage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Beverage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Beverage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Beverage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Beverage's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Beverage. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Beverage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.141 | Earnings Share 1.81 | Revenue Per Share 12.648 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.006 | Return On Assets 0.2151 |
The market value of National Beverage Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Beverage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Beverage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Beverage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Beverage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Beverage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Beverage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Beverage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.