Garuda Indonesia (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 55.0
| GIAA Stock | IDR 60.00 2.00 3.23% |
Garuda |
Garuda Indonesia Target Price Odds to finish over 55.0
The tendency of Garuda Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 55.00 in 90 days |
| 60.00 | 90 days | 55.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Garuda Indonesia to stay above 55.00 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Garuda Indonesia Persero probability density function shows the probability of Garuda Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Garuda Indonesia Persero price to stay between 55.00 and its current price of 60.0 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Garuda Indonesia Persero has a beta of -0.2. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Garuda Indonesia are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Garuda Indonesia Persero is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Garuda Indonesia Persero has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Garuda Indonesia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Garuda Indonesia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Garuda Indonesia Persero. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Garuda Indonesia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Garuda Indonesia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Garuda Indonesia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Garuda Indonesia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Garuda Indonesia Persero, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Garuda Indonesia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Garuda Indonesia Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Garuda Indonesia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Garuda Indonesia Persero can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Garuda Indonesia generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Garuda Indonesia has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.34 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.16 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (981.36 M). | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Garuda Indonesia Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Garuda Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Garuda Indonesia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garuda Indonesia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 54.4 M |
Garuda Indonesia Technical Analysis
Garuda Indonesia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Garuda Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Garuda Indonesia Persero. In general, you should focus on analyzing Garuda Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Garuda Indonesia Predictive Forecast Models
Garuda Indonesia's time-series forecasting models is one of many Garuda Indonesia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Garuda Indonesia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Garuda Indonesia Persero
Checking the ongoing alerts about Garuda Indonesia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Garuda Indonesia Persero help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Garuda Indonesia generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Garuda Indonesia has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.34 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.16 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (981.36 M). | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Garuda Indonesia Backtesting, Garuda Indonesia Valuation, Garuda Indonesia Correlation, Garuda Indonesia Hype Analysis, Garuda Indonesia Volatility, Garuda Indonesia History as well as Garuda Indonesia Performance. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Complementary Tools for Garuda Stock analysis
When running Garuda Indonesia's price analysis, check to measure Garuda Indonesia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Garuda Indonesia is operating at the current time. Most of Garuda Indonesia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Garuda Indonesia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Garuda Indonesia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Garuda Indonesia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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