Grandeur Peak Global Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 13.42
| GPMCX Fund | USD 13.46 0.10 0.75% |
Grandeur |
Grandeur Peak Target Price Odds to finish below 13.42
The tendency of Grandeur Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 13.42 or more in 90 days |
| 13.46 | 90 days | 13.42 | about 12.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grandeur Peak to drop to $ 13.42 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.04 (This Grandeur Peak Global probability density function shows the probability of Grandeur Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grandeur Peak Global price to stay between $ 13.42 and its current price of $13.46 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.82 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Grandeur Peak Global has a beta of -0.0134. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Grandeur Peak are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Grandeur Peak Global is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Grandeur Peak Global has an alpha of 0.0033, implying that it can generate a 0.003272 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Grandeur Peak Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grandeur Peak
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grandeur Peak Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grandeur Peak's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grandeur Peak Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grandeur Peak is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grandeur Peak's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grandeur Peak Global, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grandeur Peak within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Grandeur Peak Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grandeur Peak for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grandeur Peak Global can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grandeur Peak Global generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -9.0% | |
| Grandeur Peak Global retains 99.65% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Grandeur Peak Technical Analysis
Grandeur Peak's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grandeur Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grandeur Peak Global. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grandeur Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grandeur Peak Predictive Forecast Models
Grandeur Peak's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grandeur Peak's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grandeur Peak's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grandeur Peak Global
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grandeur Peak for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grandeur Peak Global help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grandeur Peak Global generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -9.0% | |
| Grandeur Peak Global retains 99.65% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Check out Grandeur Peak Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Grandeur Peak Correlation, Grandeur Peak Hype Analysis, Grandeur Peak Volatility, Grandeur Peak History as well as Grandeur Peak Performance. Note that the Grandeur Peak Global information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Grandeur Peak's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.