Thales SA (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 167.1
| HO Stock | EUR 166.20 1.65 0.98% |
Thales |
Thales SA Target Price Odds to finish below 167.1
The tendency of Thales Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 167.10 after 90 days |
| 166.20 | 90 days | 167.10 | about 92.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thales SA to stay under € 167.10 after 90 days from now is about 92.3 (This Thales SA probability density function shows the probability of Thales Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thales SA price to stay between its current price of € 166.20 and € 167.10 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.33 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Thales SA has a beta of 0.65. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Thales SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Thales SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Thales SA has an alpha of 0.3169, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Thales SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thales SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thales SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thales SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thales SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thales SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thales SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thales SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thales SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Thales SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thales SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thales SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 53.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Thales SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thales Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thales SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thales SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 212.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 B |
Thales SA Technical Analysis
Thales SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thales Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thales SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thales Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thales SA Predictive Forecast Models
Thales SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Thales SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thales SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Thales SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Thales SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thales SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 53.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Thales SA Backtesting, Thales SA Valuation, Thales SA Correlation, Thales SA Hype Analysis, Thales SA Volatility, Thales SA History as well as Thales SA Performance. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Complementary Tools for Thales Stock analysis
When running Thales SA's price analysis, check to measure Thales SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thales SA is operating at the current time. Most of Thales SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thales SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thales SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thales SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine |