Novagold Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.73
| NG Stock | USD 3.60 0.07 1.98% |
Closest to current price NovaGold long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
NovaGold |
NovaGold Resources Target Price Odds to finish over 10.73
The tendency of NovaGold Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.73 or more in 90 days |
| 3.60 | 90 days | 10.73 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NovaGold Resources to move over $ 10.73 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This NovaGold Resources probability density function shows the probability of NovaGold Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NovaGold Resources price to stay between its current price of $ 3.60 and $ 10.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.97 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.69 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, NovaGold Resources will likely underperform. Additionally NovaGold Resources has an alpha of 0.6073, implying that it can generate a 0.61 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NovaGold Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NovaGold Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NovaGold Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NovaGold Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NovaGold Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NovaGold Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NovaGold Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NovaGold Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NovaGold Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.61 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
NovaGold Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NovaGold Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NovaGold Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NovaGold Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| NovaGold Resources has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (46.8 M) with gross profit of 0. | |
| NovaGold Resources reports about 63.88 M in cash with (7.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.4. | |
| Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Novagold Res Inc up on Friday - The Globe and Mail |
NovaGold Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NovaGold Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NovaGold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NovaGold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 334.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 125.7 M |
NovaGold Resources Technical Analysis
NovaGold Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NovaGold Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NovaGold Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing NovaGold Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NovaGold Resources Predictive Forecast Models
NovaGold Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many NovaGold Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NovaGold Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NovaGold Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about NovaGold Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NovaGold Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NovaGold Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| NovaGold Resources has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (46.8 M) with gross profit of 0. | |
| NovaGold Resources reports about 63.88 M in cash with (7.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.4. | |
| Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Novagold Res Inc up on Friday - The Globe and Mail |
Check out NovaGold Resources Backtesting, NovaGold Resources Valuation, NovaGold Resources Correlation, NovaGold Resources Hype Analysis, NovaGold Resources Volatility, NovaGold Resources History as well as NovaGold Resources Performance. For more detail on how to invest in NovaGold Stock please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.Note that the NovaGold Resources information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NovaGold Resources' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for NovaGold Stock analysis
When running NovaGold Resources' price analysis, check to measure NovaGold Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NovaGold Resources is operating at the current time. Most of NovaGold Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NovaGold Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NovaGold Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NovaGold Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NovaGold Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NovaGold Resources. If investors know NovaGold will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NovaGold Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.14) | Return On Assets (0.10) | Return On Equity (17.91) |
The market value of NovaGold Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NovaGold that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NovaGold Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NovaGold Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NovaGold Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NovaGold Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NovaGold Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NovaGold Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NovaGold Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.