Noah Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.91
| NOAH Stock | USD 10.40 0.03 0.29% |
Closest to current price Noah long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Noah |
Noah Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 13.91
The tendency of Noah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 13.91 after 90 days |
| 10.40 | 90 days | 13.91 | about 83.45 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Noah Holdings to stay under $ 13.91 after 90 days from now is about 83.45 (This Noah Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Noah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Noah Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 10.40 and $ 13.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.93 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Noah Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally Noah Holdings has an alpha of 0.045, implying that it can generate a 0.045 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Noah Holdings Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Noah Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Noah Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Noah Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Noah Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Noah Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Noah Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Noah Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Noah Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.93 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Noah Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Noah Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Noah Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Noah Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Noah Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Noah Holdings Limited Stocks 25 percent Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny |
Noah Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Noah Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Noah Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Noah Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.6 B |
Noah Holdings Technical Analysis
Noah Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Noah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Noah Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Noah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Noah Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Noah Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Noah Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Noah Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Noah Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Noah Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Noah Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Noah Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Noah Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Noah Holdings Limited Stocks 25 percent Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Noah Stock
When determining whether Noah Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Noah Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Noah Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Noah Holdings Stock:Check out Noah Holdings Backtesting, Noah Holdings Valuation, Noah Holdings Correlation, Noah Holdings Hype Analysis, Noah Holdings Volatility, Noah Holdings History as well as Noah Holdings Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Noah Stock please use our How to Invest in Noah Holdings guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Noah Holdings. If investors know Noah will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Noah Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Dividend Share 7.75 | Earnings Share 1.82 | Revenue Per Share 45.157 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
The market value of Noah Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Noah that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Noah Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Noah Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Noah Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Noah Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Noah Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Noah Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Noah Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.