Post Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 101.39
| POST Stock | USD 106.15 1.02 0.95% |
Closest to current price Post long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
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Post Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 101.39
The tendency of Post Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 101.39 in 90 days |
| 106.15 | 90 days | 101.39 | about 76.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Post Holdings to stay above $ 101.39 in 90 days from now is about 76.2 (This Post Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Post Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Post Holdings price to stay between $ 101.39 and its current price of $106.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 56.66 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Post Holdings has a beta of 0.59 indicating as returns on the market go up, Post Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Post Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Post Holdings has an alpha of 0.1669, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Post Holdings Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Post Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Post Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Post Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Post Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Post Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Post Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Post Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Post Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Post Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Post Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Post Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Post Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Post Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Robert Vitale of 9900 shares of Post Holdings subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Post Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Post Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Post Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Post Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.3 M |
Post Holdings Technical Analysis
Post Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Post Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Post Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Post Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Post Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Post Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Post Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Post Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Post Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Post Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Post Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Post Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Post Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Robert Vitale of 9900 shares of Post Holdings subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Post Holdings Backtesting, Post Holdings Valuation, Post Holdings Correlation, Post Holdings Hype Analysis, Post Holdings Volatility, Post Holdings History as well as Post Holdings Performance. For more information on how to buy Post Stock please use our How to Invest in Post Holdings guide.You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Complementary Tools for Post Stock analysis
When running Post Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Post Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Post Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Post Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Post Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Post Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Post Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Post Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Post Holdings. If investors know Post will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Post Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Earnings Share 4.65 | Revenue Per Share 122.31 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.255 | Return On Assets 0.039 |
The market value of Post Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Post that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Post Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Post Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Post Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Post Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Post Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Post Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Post Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.