Shopify Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 66.14
| SHOP Stock | USD 60.68 0.98 1.64% |
Closest to current price Shopify long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Shopify |
Shopify Target Price Odds to finish over 66.14
The tendency of Shopify Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 66.14 or more in 90 days |
| 60.68 | 90 days | 66.14 | about 69.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Shopify to move over $ 66.14 or more in 90 days from now is about 69.62 (This Shopify probability density function shows the probability of Shopify Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Shopify price to stay between its current price of $ 60.68 and $ 66.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.22 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.45 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Shopify will likely underperform. Additionally Shopify has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Shopify Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Shopify
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shopify. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shopify's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shopify Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Shopify is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Shopify's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Shopify, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Shopify within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.33 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Shopify Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Shopify for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Shopify can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Shopify generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Shopify has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: FirstService Residential Partners with Paradise Palms Resort to Elevate Offerings |
Shopify Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Shopify Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Shopify's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shopify's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 B |
Shopify Technical Analysis
Shopify's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Shopify Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Shopify. In general, you should focus on analyzing Shopify Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Shopify Predictive Forecast Models
Shopify's time-series forecasting models is one of many Shopify's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Shopify's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Shopify
Checking the ongoing alerts about Shopify for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Shopify help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Shopify generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Shopify has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: FirstService Residential Partners with Paradise Palms Resort to Elevate Offerings |
Additional Tools for Shopify Stock Analysis
When running Shopify's price analysis, check to measure Shopify's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shopify is operating at the current time. Most of Shopify's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shopify's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shopify's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shopify to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.