Telkom Indonesia (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2,971
| TLKM Stock | IDR 3,150 30.00 0.96% |
Telkom |
Telkom Indonesia Target Price Odds to finish below 2,971
The tendency of Telkom Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 3,150 | 90 days | 3,150 | about 7.71 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Telkom Indonesia to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 7.71 (This Telkom Indonesia Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Telkom Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Telkom Indonesia has a beta of 0.0615. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Telkom Indonesia average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Telkom Indonesia Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Telkom Indonesia Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Telkom Indonesia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Telkom Indonesia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telkom Indonesia Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Telkom Indonesia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Telkom Indonesia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Telkom Indonesia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Telkom Indonesia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Telkom Indonesia Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Telkom Indonesia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.45 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 382.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.3 |
Telkom Indonesia Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Telkom Indonesia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Telkom Indonesia Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Telkom Indonesia Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has accumulated 46.74 T in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.46, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Telkom Indonesia Tbk has a current ratio of 0.8, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Telkom Indonesia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Telkom Indonesia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Telkom Indonesia Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Telkom to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Telkom Indonesia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 57.0% of Telkom Indonesia outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Telkom Indonesia Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Telkom Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Telkom Indonesia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Telkom Indonesia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.8 T |
Telkom Indonesia Technical Analysis
Telkom Indonesia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Telkom Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Telkom Indonesia Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Telkom Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Telkom Indonesia Predictive Forecast Models
Telkom Indonesia's time-series forecasting models is one of many Telkom Indonesia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Telkom Indonesia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Telkom Indonesia Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Telkom Indonesia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Telkom Indonesia Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Telkom Indonesia Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has accumulated 46.74 T in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.46, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Telkom Indonesia Tbk has a current ratio of 0.8, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Telkom Indonesia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Telkom Indonesia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Telkom Indonesia Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Telkom to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Telkom Indonesia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 57.0% of Telkom Indonesia outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Telkom Indonesia Backtesting, Telkom Indonesia Valuation, Telkom Indonesia Correlation, Telkom Indonesia Hype Analysis, Telkom Indonesia Volatility, Telkom Indonesia History as well as Telkom Indonesia Performance. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
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When running Telkom Indonesia's price analysis, check to measure Telkom Indonesia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telkom Indonesia is operating at the current time. Most of Telkom Indonesia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telkom Indonesia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telkom Indonesia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telkom Indonesia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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