Ugi Corporation Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.83
| UGI Stock | USD 25.46 0.49 1.96% |
Closest to current price UGI long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
UGI |
UGI Target Price Odds to finish below 24.83
The tendency of UGI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 24.83 or more in 90 days |
| 25.46 | 90 days | 24.83 | about 63.45 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UGI to drop to $ 24.83 or more in 90 days from now is about 63.45 (This UGI Corporation probability density function shows the probability of UGI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UGI Corporation price to stay between $ 24.83 and its current price of $25.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.61 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon UGI has a beta of 0.71. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, UGI average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UGI Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UGI Corporation has an alpha of 0.0646, implying that it can generate a 0.0646 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UGI Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for UGI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UGI Corporation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UGI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UGI Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UGI is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UGI's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UGI Corporation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UGI within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
UGI Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UGI for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UGI Corporation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.93 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.5 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.99 B. | |
| UGI Corporation has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: UGI Up 3.1 percent Since Last Earnings Report Can It Continue |
UGI Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UGI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UGI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UGI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 209.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 241 M |
UGI Technical Analysis
UGI's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UGI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UGI Corporation. In general, you should focus on analyzing UGI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UGI Predictive Forecast Models
UGI's time-series forecasting models is one of many UGI's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UGI's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about UGI Corporation
Checking the ongoing alerts about UGI for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UGI Corporation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.93 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.5 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.99 B. | |
| UGI Corporation has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: UGI Up 3.1 percent Since Last Earnings Report Can It Continue |
Check out UGI Backtesting, UGI Valuation, UGI Correlation, UGI Hype Analysis, UGI Volatility, UGI History as well as UGI Performance. Note that the UGI Corporation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UGI's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Complementary Tools for UGI Stock analysis
When running UGI's price analysis, check to measure UGI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UGI is operating at the current time. Most of UGI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UGI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UGI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UGI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UGI's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UGI. If investors know UGI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UGI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.51 | Dividend Share 1.5 | Earnings Share (0.40) | Revenue Per Share 36.477 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) |
The market value of UGI Corporation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UGI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UGI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UGI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UGI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UGI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UGI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UGI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UGI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.