First Media (Indonesia) Market Value
| KBLV Stock | IDR 29.00 1.00 3.33% |
| Symbol | First |
First Media 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Media's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Media.
| 04/08/2024 |
| 05/08/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Media on April 8, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Media Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Media over 30 days. First Media is related to or competes with Akbar Indomakmur, Bayu Buana, Centratama Telekomunikasi, Fortune Indonesia, and Alakasa Industrindo. More
First Media Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Media's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Media Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.38) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.99 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.70) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.23 |
First Media Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Media's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Media's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Media historical prices to predict the future First Media's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.22) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (1.22) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.67) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.12 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Media Tbk Backtested Returns
First Media Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.42, which denotes the company had a -0.42% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Media Tbk exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Media's Standard Deviation of 3.59, mean deviation of 2.65, and Variance of 12.87 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -1.16, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Media are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, First Media is expected to outperform it. First Media Tbk has an expected return of -1.61%. Please make sure to confirm First Media Tbk potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if First Media Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.72 |
Good predictability
First Media Tbk has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Media time series from 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024 and 23rd of April 2024 to 8th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Media Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current First Media price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.31 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.14 |
First Media Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Media stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Media's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Media returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Media has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Media regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Media stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Media stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Media stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Media Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Media's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Media stock have on its future price. First Media autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Media autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Media stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Media Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Media in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Media's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Media options trading.
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Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Media's price analysis, check to measure First Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Media is operating at the current time. Most of First Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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First Media technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.