NOVAGOLD RESOURCES (Germany) Market Value
| NGR Stock | EUR 2.77 0.03 1.07% |
| Symbol | NOVAGOLD |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES.
| 04/10/2024 |
| 05/10/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NOVAGOLD RESOURCES on April 10, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NOVAGOLD RESOURCES or generate 0.0% return on investment in NOVAGOLD RESOURCES over 30 days. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is related to or competes with CSSC Offshore, Waste Management, Coor Service, Q2M Managementberatu, Eidesvik Offshore, BW OFFSHORE, and Platinum Investment. More
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NOVAGOLD RESOURCES upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.82 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0753 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 24.04 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.6 |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NOVAGOLD RESOURCES historical prices to predict the future NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0683 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4081 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0754 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.57) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Backtested Returns
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0971, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0971% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for NOVAGOLD RESOURCES, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0683, mean deviation of 2.62, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.56) to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, NOVAGOLD RESOURCES holds a performance score of 7. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.64, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning NOVAGOLD RESOURCES are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is likely to outperform the market. Please check NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.37 |
Poor reverse predictability
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NOVAGOLD RESOURCES time series from 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024 and 25th of April 2024 to 10th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES price movement. The serial correlation of -0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current NOVAGOLD RESOURCES price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.61 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NOVAGOLD RESOURCES has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES Lagged Returns
When evaluating NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock have on its future price. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NOVAGOLD RESOURCES autocorrelation shows the relationship between NOVAGOLD RESOURCES stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NOVAGOLD RESOURCES.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Complementary Tools for NOVAGOLD Stock analysis
When running NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's price analysis, check to measure NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NOVAGOLD RESOURCES is operating at the current time. Most of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NOVAGOLD RESOURCES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NOVAGOLD RESOURCES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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NOVAGOLD RESOURCES technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.