Jennison Natural Resources Fund Market Value
| PGNAX Fund | USD 57.06 0.90 1.60% |
| Symbol | Jennison |
Jennison Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Jennison Natural's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Jennison Natural.
| 02/07/2024 |
| 05/07/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Jennison Natural on February 7, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Jennison Natural Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Jennison Natural over 90 days. Jennison Natural is related to or competes with Prudential Jennison, Prudential Jennison, Prudential Jennison, Prudential Short, Prudential Short, Prudential Short, and Prudential Emerging. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of investable assets in equity and equity-related securities of natural re... More
Jennison Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Jennison Natural's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Jennison Natural Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1502 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.66) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.72 |
Jennison Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Jennison Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Jennison Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Jennison Natural historical prices to predict the future Jennison Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1407 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2438 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1157 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1247 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.18) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jennison Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Jennison Natural Res Backtested Returns
Jennison Natural appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Jennison Natural Res holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.25, which attests that the entity had a 0.25% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Jennison Natural Res, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please utilize Jennison Natural's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1407, downside deviation of 1.33, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.17) to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.2, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Jennison Natural are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Jennison Natural is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.17 |
Very weak predictability
Jennison Natural Resources has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Jennison Natural time series from 7th of February 2024 to 23rd of March 2024 and 23rd of March 2024 to 7th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Jennison Natural Res price movement. The serial correlation of 0.17 indicates that over 17.0% of current Jennison Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.17 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.31 |
Jennison Natural Res lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Jennison Natural mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Jennison Natural's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Jennison Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Jennison Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Jennison Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Jennison Natural mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Jennison Natural mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Jennison Natural mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Jennison Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Jennison Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Jennison Natural mutual fund have on its future price. Jennison Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Jennison Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Jennison Natural mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Jennison Natural Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out Jennison Natural Correlation, Jennison Natural Volatility and Jennison Natural Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Jennison Natural. Note that the Jennison Natural Res information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jennison Natural's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Jennison Natural technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.