TotalEnergies (Germany) Market Value
| TOTA Stock | EUR 68.00 1.50 2.26% |
| Symbol | TotalEnergies |
TotalEnergies 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TotalEnergies' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TotalEnergies.
| 02/13/2024 |
| 05/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TotalEnergies on February 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TotalEnergies SE or generate 0.0% return on investment in TotalEnergies over 90 days. TotalEnergies is related to or competes with Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Chevron, TotalEnergies, PetroChina Company, and BP Plc. TotalEnergies SE operates as an integrated oil and gas company worldwide More
TotalEnergies Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TotalEnergies' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TotalEnergies SE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1191 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.17 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.67) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.59 |
TotalEnergies Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TotalEnergies' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TotalEnergies' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TotalEnergies historical prices to predict the future TotalEnergies' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1142 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2636 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0738 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1308 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.23) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TotalEnergies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TotalEnergies SE Backtested Returns
TotalEnergies appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. TotalEnergies SE owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.15, which indicates the firm had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for TotalEnergies SE, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review TotalEnergies' Semi Deviation of 0.9496, coefficient of variation of 569.33, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1142 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, TotalEnergies holds a performance score of 11. The entity has a beta of -0.2, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning TotalEnergies are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, TotalEnergies is likely to outperform the market. Please check TotalEnergies' treynor ratio, value at risk, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether TotalEnergies' existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.15 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
TotalEnergies SE has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TotalEnergies time series from 13th of February 2024 to 29th of March 2024 and 29th of March 2024 to 13th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TotalEnergies SE price movement. The serial correlation of -0.15 indicates that less than 15.0% of current TotalEnergies price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.15 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.91 |
TotalEnergies SE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TotalEnergies stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TotalEnergies' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TotalEnergies returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TotalEnergies has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TotalEnergies regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TotalEnergies stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TotalEnergies stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TotalEnergies stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TotalEnergies Lagged Returns
When evaluating TotalEnergies' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TotalEnergies stock have on its future price. TotalEnergies autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TotalEnergies autocorrelation shows the relationship between TotalEnergies stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TotalEnergies SE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out TotalEnergies Correlation, TotalEnergies Volatility and TotalEnergies Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on TotalEnergies. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Complementary Tools for TotalEnergies Stock analysis
When running TotalEnergies' price analysis, check to measure TotalEnergies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TotalEnergies is operating at the current time. Most of TotalEnergies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TotalEnergies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TotalEnergies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TotalEnergies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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TotalEnergies technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.