Eagle Materials Stock Price Prediction
| EXP Stock | USD 265.76 4.64 1.78% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
40
Oversold | Overbought |
Eagle Materials stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Eagle Materials shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Eagle Materials' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Eagle Materials and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Eagle Materials' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Eagle Materials, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Eagle Materials' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.163 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.69 | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.25 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.1 | Wall Street Target Price 280.7 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Eagle Materials based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Eagle stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Eagle Materials over a specific investment horizon. Using Eagle Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Eagle Materials from the perspective of Eagle Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Eagle Materials using Eagle Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Eagle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Eagle Materials' stock price.
Eagle Materials Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Eagle Materials' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Eagle. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Eagle Materials stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Eagle Materials may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Eagle Materials and may potentially protect profits, hedge Eagle Materials with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 205.0882 | Short Percent 0.029 | Short Ratio 3.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 993.2 K | 50 Day MA 256.0432 |
Eagle Materials Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Eagle Materials' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Eagle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Eagle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Eagle Materials. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Eagle Materials' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Eagle Materials.
Eagle Materials Implied Volatility | 30.08 |
Eagle Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Eagle Materials stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Eagle Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Eagle Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when Eagle Materials' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Eagle Materials. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Eagle Materials to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Eagle because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Eagle Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 259.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Eagle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Eagle Materials will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.88% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Eagle Materials trading at USD 265.76, that is roughly USD 5.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Eagle Materials' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Eagle Materials options at the current volatility level of 30.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Eagle |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eagle Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Eagle Materials After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Eagle Materials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Eagle Materials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Eagle Materials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Eagle Materials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Eagle Materials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Eagle Materials' historical news coverage. Eagle Materials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 258.25 and 261.31, respectively. We have considered Eagle Materials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Eagle Materials is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Eagle Materials is based on 3 months time horizon.
Eagle Materials Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Eagle Materials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Eagle Materials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Eagle Materials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.54 | 1.49 | 0.21 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
265.76 | 259.78 | 0.51 |
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Eagle Materials Hype Timeline
On the 6th of May Eagle Materials is traded for 265.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. Eagle is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 259.78. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 20.62%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Eagle Materials is about 144.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 265.97. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. Eagle Materials recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.18. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. The firm had 3:1 split on the 27th of February 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Eagle Materials Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Eagle Materials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Eagle Materials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Eagle Materials' future price movements. Getting to know how Eagle Materials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Eagle Materials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | 1.45 | 11 per month | 0.82 | 0.13 | 1.91 | (1.48) | 6.88 | |
| CRH | CRH PLC ADR | 0.63 | 10 per month | 1.12 | 0.07 | 2.28 | (1.92) | 8.88 | |
| SUM | Summit Materials | (1.00) | 10 per month | 1.60 | 0.04 | 3.28 | (3.07) | 8.86 | |
| CX | Cemex SAB de | (0.15) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.60 | (3.50) | 11.30 | |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | 6.20 | 9 per month | 1.00 | 0.11 | 2.21 | (1.91) | 5.12 | |
| USLM | United States Lime | 3.26 | 6 per month | 1.19 | 0.20 | 4.14 | (2.72) | 8.40 | |
| CPAC | Cementos Pacasmayo SAA | (0.24) | 11 per month | 1.90 | 0.04 | 3.57 | (4.32) | 12.05 | |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | 0.44 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.20 | (2.58) | 14.83 | |
| MCEM | The Monarch Cement | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.55 | 0.14 | 2.60 | (1.57) | 8.53 | |
| LOMA | Loma Negra Compania | 0.06 | 8 per month | 2.23 | 0.01 | 3.77 | (3.99) | 15.43 |
Eagle Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Eagle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Eagle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Eagle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Eagle Materials Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Eagle Materials stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Eagle Materials, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Eagle Materials based on analysis of Eagle Materials hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Eagle Materials's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Eagle Materials's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006943 | 0.007985 | 0.007586 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.51 | 2.26 | 2.06 |
Story Coverage note for Eagle Materials
The number of cover stories for Eagle Materials depends on current market conditions and Eagle Materials' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Eagle Materials is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Eagle Materials' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Eagle Materials Short Properties
Eagle Materials' future price predictability will typically decrease when Eagle Materials' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Eagle Materials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Eagle Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Eagle Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.2 M |
Check out Eagle Materials Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Eagle Stock, please use our How to Invest in Eagle Materials guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Eagle Stock analysis
When running Eagle Materials' price analysis, check to measure Eagle Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eagle Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Eagle Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eagle Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eagle Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eagle Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Eagle Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eagle Materials. If investors know Eagle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Eagle Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.163 | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 14.18 | Revenue Per Share 64.117 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.093 |
The market value of Eagle Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eagle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eagle Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eagle Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eagle Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eagle Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eagle Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eagle Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eagle Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.