Triunfo Participaes (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.61
| TPIS3 Stock | BRL 3.83 0.02 0.52% |
Triunfo |
Triunfo Participaes Target Price Odds to finish over 1.61
The tendency of Triunfo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above R$ 1.61 in 90 days |
| 3.83 | 90 days | 1.61 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Triunfo Participaes to stay above R$ 1.61 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Triunfo Participaes e probability density function shows the probability of Triunfo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Triunfo Participaes price to stay between R$ 1.61 and its current price of R$3.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.12 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Triunfo Participaes e has a beta of -0.12. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Triunfo Participaes are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Triunfo Participaes e is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Triunfo Participaes e has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Triunfo Participaes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Triunfo Participaes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triunfo Participaes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Triunfo Participaes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Triunfo Participaes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Triunfo Participaes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Triunfo Participaes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Triunfo Participaes e, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Triunfo Participaes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Triunfo Participaes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Triunfo Participaes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Triunfo Participaes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Triunfo Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Triunfo Participaes has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Triunfo Participaes has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 1.36 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 255.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Triunfo Participaes has a current ratio of 0.11, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Triunfo Participaes until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Triunfo Participaes' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Triunfo Participaes sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Triunfo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Triunfo Participaes' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 62.0% of Triunfo Participaes outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Triunfo Participaes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Triunfo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Triunfo Participaes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triunfo Participaes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 173.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 81.6 M |
Triunfo Participaes Technical Analysis
Triunfo Participaes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Triunfo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Triunfo Participaes e. In general, you should focus on analyzing Triunfo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Triunfo Participaes Predictive Forecast Models
Triunfo Participaes' time-series forecasting models is one of many Triunfo Participaes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Triunfo Participaes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Triunfo Participaes
Checking the ongoing alerts about Triunfo Participaes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Triunfo Participaes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Triunfo Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Triunfo Participaes has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Triunfo Participaes has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 1.36 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 255.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Triunfo Participaes has a current ratio of 0.11, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Triunfo Participaes until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Triunfo Participaes' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Triunfo Participaes sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Triunfo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Triunfo Participaes' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 62.0% of Triunfo Participaes outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Triunfo Participaes Backtesting, Triunfo Participaes Valuation, Triunfo Participaes Correlation, Triunfo Participaes Hype Analysis, Triunfo Participaes Volatility, Triunfo Participaes History as well as Triunfo Participaes Performance. Note that the Triunfo Participaes information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Triunfo Participaes' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Complementary Tools for Triunfo Stock analysis
When running Triunfo Participaes' price analysis, check to measure Triunfo Participaes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Triunfo Participaes is operating at the current time. Most of Triunfo Participaes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Triunfo Participaes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Triunfo Participaes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Triunfo Participaes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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