Commercial Metals Stock Market Value
| CMC Stock | USD 57.37 0.08 0.14% |
| Symbol | Commercial |
Is Commercial Metals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commercial Metals. If investors know Commercial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commercial Metals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Commercial Metals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commercial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commercial Metals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commercial Metals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commercial Metals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commercial Metals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commercial Metals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commercial Metals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commercial Metals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Commercial Metals 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commercial Metals' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commercial Metals.
| 04/14/2024 |
| 05/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Commercial Metals on April 14, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commercial Metals or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commercial Metals over 30 days. Commercial Metals is related to or competes with Reliance Steel, and Ternium SA. Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, and related materials and ser... More
Commercial Metals Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commercial Metals' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commercial Metals upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0235 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.74 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.78 |
Commercial Metals Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commercial Metals' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commercial Metals' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commercial Metals historical prices to predict the future Commercial Metals' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0511 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0144 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0282 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0783 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commercial Metals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commercial Metals Backtested Returns
We consider Commercial Metals very steady. Commercial Metals secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0863, which signifies that the company had a 0.0863% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Commercial Metals, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Commercial Metals' Mean Deviation of 1.16, risk adjusted performance of 0.0511, and Downside Deviation of 1.3 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.13%. Commercial Metals has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.33, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Commercial Metals will likely underperform. Commercial Metals right now shows a risk of 1.54%. Please confirm Commercial Metals jensen alpha, potential upside, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and expected short fall , to decide if Commercial Metals will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.71 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Commercial Metals has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commercial Metals time series from 14th of April 2024 to 29th of April 2024 and 29th of April 2024 to 14th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commercial Metals price movement. The serial correlation of -0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Commercial Metals price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.7 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.45 |
Commercial Metals lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Commercial Metals stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Commercial Metals' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Commercial Metals returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Commercial Metals has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Commercial Metals regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Commercial Metals stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Commercial Metals stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Commercial Metals stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Commercial Metals Lagged Returns
When evaluating Commercial Metals' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Commercial Metals stock have on its future price. Commercial Metals autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Commercial Metals autocorrelation shows the relationship between Commercial Metals stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Commercial Metals.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Commercial Metals
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Commercial Metals position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Commercial Metals will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Commercial Stock
| 0.54 | INHD | Inno Holdings Common | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | HLP | Hongli Group Ordinary | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | X | United States Steel | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Commercial Metals could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Commercial Metals when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Commercial Metals - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Commercial Metals to buy it.
The correlation of Commercial Metals is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Commercial Metals moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Commercial Metals moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Commercial Metals can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Commercial Metals Correlation, Commercial Metals Volatility and Commercial Metals Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Commercial Metals. For information on how to trade Commercial Stock refer to our How to Trade Commercial Stock guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for Commercial Stock analysis
When running Commercial Metals' price analysis, check to measure Commercial Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Commercial Metals technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.