New Opportunities Fund Market Value
| JASOX Fund | USD 24.15 0.14 0.58% |
| Symbol | New |
New Opportunities 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to New Opportunities' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of New Opportunities.
| 04/03/2024 |
| 05/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in New Opportunities on April 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding New Opportunities Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in New Opportunities over 30 days. New Opportunities is related to or competes with T Rowe. Under normal circumstances, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its assets in equity securities of small-capitalizat... More
New Opportunities Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure New Opportunities' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess New Opportunities Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.27) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.67 |
New Opportunities Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for New Opportunities' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as New Opportunities' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use New Opportunities historical prices to predict the future New Opportunities' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0016 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.01) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Opportunities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
New Opportunities Backtested Returns
We consider New Opportunities very steady. New Opportunities has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0315, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0315% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for New Opportunities, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify New Opportunities' Mean Deviation of 0.9332, risk adjusted performance of 0.0016, and Standard Deviation of 1.17 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0357%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.58, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, New Opportunities will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.36 |
Poor reverse predictability
New Opportunities Fund has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between New Opportunities time series from 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024 and 18th of April 2024 to 3rd of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of New Opportunities price movement. The serial correlation of -0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current New Opportunities price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.52 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
New Opportunities lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is New Opportunities mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting New Opportunities' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of New Opportunities returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that New Opportunities has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
New Opportunities regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If New Opportunities mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if New Opportunities mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in New Opportunities mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
New Opportunities Lagged Returns
When evaluating New Opportunities' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of New Opportunities mutual fund have on its future price. New Opportunities autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, New Opportunities autocorrelation shows the relationship between New Opportunities mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in New Opportunities Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards New Opportunities in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, New Opportunities' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from New Opportunities options trading.
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New Opportunities technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.