Turkiye Petrol (Turkey) Market Value
| TUPRS Stock | TRY 181.50 2.10 1.14% |
| Symbol | Turkiye |
Turkiye Petrol 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Turkiye Petrol's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Turkiye Petrol.
| 04/16/2024 |
| 05/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Turkiye Petrol on April 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri or generate 0.0% return on investment in Turkiye Petrol over 30 days. Turkiye Petrol is related to or competes with Eregli Demir, Turkiye Sise, Turkish Airlines, Petkim Petrokimya, and Aselsan Elektronik. Trkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the refining crude oil, petroleum, and chemi... More
Turkiye Petrol Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Turkiye Petrol's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1414 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.63 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.13) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.25 |
Turkiye Petrol Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Turkiye Petrol's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Turkiye Petrol's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Turkiye Petrol historical prices to predict the future Turkiye Petrol's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1238 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3894 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1057 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1958 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.15) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Turkiye Petrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Turkiye Petrol Rafin Backtested Returns
Turkiye Petrol appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Turkiye Petrol Rafin owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.14, which indicates the firm had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Turkiye Petrol's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1238, semi deviation of 1.18, and Coefficient Of Variation of 535.38 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Turkiye Petrol holds a performance score of 10. The entity has a beta of -0.32, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Turkiye Petrol are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Turkiye Petrol is likely to outperform the market. Please check Turkiye Petrol's total risk alpha, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the Downside Variance and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Turkiye Petrol's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.85 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Turkiye Petrol time series from 16th of April 2024 to 1st of May 2024 and 1st of May 2024 to 16th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Turkiye Petrol Rafin price movement. The serial correlation of -0.85 indicates that around 85.0% of current Turkiye Petrol price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.85 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.87 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 60.61 |
Turkiye Petrol Rafin lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Turkiye Petrol stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Turkiye Petrol's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Turkiye Petrol returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Turkiye Petrol has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Turkiye Petrol regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Turkiye Petrol stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Turkiye Petrol stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Turkiye Petrol stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Turkiye Petrol Lagged Returns
When evaluating Turkiye Petrol's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Turkiye Petrol stock have on its future price. Turkiye Petrol autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Turkiye Petrol autocorrelation shows the relationship between Turkiye Petrol stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Turkiye Petrol in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Turkiye Petrol's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Turkiye Petrol options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Turkiye Stock analysis
When running Turkiye Petrol's price analysis, check to measure Turkiye Petrol's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Turkiye Petrol is operating at the current time. Most of Turkiye Petrol's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Turkiye Petrol's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Turkiye Petrol's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Turkiye Petrol to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Turkiye Petrol technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.