Toronto Dominion Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TD Stock | USD 59.38 0.27 0.46% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Toronto Dominion Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 60.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.47. Toronto Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Toronto Dominion stock prices and determine the direction of Toronto Dominion Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Toronto Dominion's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Toronto Dominion's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Toronto Dominion's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Toronto Dominion fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toronto Dominion to cross-verify your projections. Toronto |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Toronto Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Toronto Dominion's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Toronto Dominion's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Toronto Dominion stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Toronto Dominion's open interest, investors have to compare it to Toronto Dominion's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Toronto Dominion is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Toronto. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Toronto Dominion cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Toronto Dominion's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Toronto Dominion's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Toronto Dominion is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Toronto Dominion Bank value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Toronto Dominion Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Toronto Dominion Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 60.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toronto Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toronto Dominion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Toronto Dominion Stock Forecast Pattern
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Toronto Dominion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Toronto Dominion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toronto Dominion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.71 and 61.70, respectively. We have considered Toronto Dominion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toronto Dominion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toronto Dominion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0633 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4831 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.4673 |
Predictive Modules for Toronto Dominion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toronto Dominion Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toronto Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Toronto Dominion
For every potential investor in Toronto, whether a beginner or expert, Toronto Dominion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toronto Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toronto. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toronto Dominion's price trends.Toronto Dominion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toronto Dominion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toronto Dominion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toronto Dominion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toronto Dominion Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Toronto Dominion's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Toronto Dominion's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Toronto Dominion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toronto Dominion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toronto Dominion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toronto Dominion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toronto Dominion Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Toronto Dominion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toronto Dominion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toronto Dominion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toronto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7836 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9957 | |||
| Variance | 0.9913 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Toronto Dominion Bank is a strong investment it is important to analyze Toronto Dominion's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Toronto Dominion's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Toronto Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toronto Dominion to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Toronto Dominion Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Toronto Dominion's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Toronto Stock analysis
When running Toronto Dominion's price analysis, check to measure Toronto Dominion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toronto Dominion is operating at the current time. Most of Toronto Dominion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toronto Dominion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toronto Dominion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toronto Dominion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Toronto Dominion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toronto Dominion. If investors know Toronto will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toronto Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.888 | Dividend Share 3.9 | Earnings Share 4.62 | Revenue Per Share 27.824 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
The market value of Toronto Dominion Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toronto that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toronto Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toronto Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toronto Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toronto Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toronto Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toronto Dominion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toronto Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.