Jpmorgan Chase Co Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 196.30

JPM Stock  USD 196.30  2.37  1.19%   
JPMorgan Chase's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on JPMorgan Chase Co. Implied volatility approximates the future value of JPMorgan Chase based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in JPMorgan Chase Co over a specific time period. For example, 2024-06-28 CALL at $197.5 is a CALL option contract on JPMorgan Chase's common stock with a strick price of 197.5 expiring on 2024-06-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-06-21 at 15:59:37 for $1.79 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.76, and an ask price of $1.85. The implied volatility as of the 22nd of June is 22.84. View All JPMorgan options

Closest to current price JPMorgan long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

JPMorgan Chase's future price is the expected price of JPMorgan Chase instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of JPMorgan Chase Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out JPMorgan Chase Backtesting, JPMorgan Chase Valuation, JPMorgan Chase Correlation, JPMorgan Chase Hype Analysis, JPMorgan Chase Volatility, JPMorgan Chase History as well as JPMorgan Chase Performance.
  
At this time, JPMorgan Chase's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 22nd of June 2024, Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to grow to 40.45, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 9.50. Please specify JPMorgan Chase's target price for which you would like JPMorgan Chase odds to be computed.

JPMorgan Chase Target Price Odds to finish over 196.30

The tendency of JPMorgan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 196.30 90 days 196.30 
about 41.88
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JPMorgan Chase to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 41.88 (This JPMorgan Chase Co probability density function shows the probability of JPMorgan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.12 . This indicates JPMorgan Chase Co market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, JPMorgan Chase is expected to follow. Additionally JPMorgan Chase Co has an alpha of 0.0355, implying that it can generate a 0.0355 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   JPMorgan Chase Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for JPMorgan Chase

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JPMorgan Chase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JPMorgan Chase's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
194.91196.35197.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
176.36177.80215.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
199.45200.89202.33
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
146.71161.22178.95
Details

JPMorgan Chase Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JPMorgan Chase is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JPMorgan Chase's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JPMorgan Chase Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JPMorgan Chase within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.12
σ
Overall volatility
5.27
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

JPMorgan Chase Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of JPMorgan Chase for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for JPMorgan Chase can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
JPMorgan Chase has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 30th of April 2024 JPMorgan Chase paid $ 1.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from ajc.com: Centennial Yards taps incentives to fund 557M bonds for next phase

JPMorgan Chase Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JPMorgan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JPMorgan Chase's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JPMorgan Chase's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.9 B
Cash And Short Term Investments305.2 B

JPMorgan Chase Technical Analysis

JPMorgan Chase's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JPMorgan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JPMorgan Chase Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing JPMorgan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

JPMorgan Chase Predictive Forecast Models

JPMorgan Chase's time-series forecasting models is one of many JPMorgan Chase's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JPMorgan Chase's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about JPMorgan Chase

Checking the ongoing alerts about JPMorgan Chase for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for JPMorgan Chase help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
JPMorgan Chase has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 30th of April 2024 JPMorgan Chase paid $ 1.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from ajc.com: Centennial Yards taps incentives to fund 557M bonds for next phase

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in JPMorgan Stock

When determining whether JPMorgan Chase is a strong investment it is important to analyze JPMorgan Chase's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact JPMorgan Chase's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding JPMorgan Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JPMorgan Chase. If investors know JPMorgan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JPMorgan Chase listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.083
Dividend Share
4.25
Earnings Share
16.57
Revenue Per Share
51.308
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.111
The market value of JPMorgan Chase is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JPMorgan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JPMorgan Chase's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JPMorgan Chase's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JPMorgan Chase's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JPMorgan Chase's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JPMorgan Chase's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JPMorgan Chase is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JPMorgan Chase's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.