Conagra Foods Stock Price Prediction

CAG Stock  USD 30.01  0.25  0.84%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of ConAgra Foods' the stock price is roughly 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 16th of April 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ConAgra, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

65

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
ConAgra Foods stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ConAgra Foods shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ConAgra Foods' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ConAgra Foods and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ConAgra Foods' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ConAgra Foods, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ConAgra Foods' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.1)
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.63
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.71
Wall Street Target Price
31.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.65
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ConAgra Foods based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ConAgra stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ConAgra Foods over a specific investment horizon. Using ConAgra Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ConAgra Foods from the perspective of ConAgra Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ConAgra Foods using ConAgra Foods' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ConAgra using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ConAgra Foods' stock price.

ConAgra Foods Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in ConAgra Foods' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ConAgra. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ConAgra Foods stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ConAgra Foods may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ConAgra Foods and may potentially protect profits, hedge ConAgra Foods with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
29.2433
Short Percent
0.0271
Short Ratio
2.58
Shares Short Prior Month
8.4 M
50 Day MA
28.6786

ConAgra Foods Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ConAgra Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ConAgra. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ConAgra can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ConAgra Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ConAgra Foods' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ConAgra Foods.

ConAgra Foods Implied Volatility

    
  28.47  
ConAgra Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ConAgra Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ConAgra Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ConAgra Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when ConAgra Foods' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ConAgra Foods. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ConAgra Foods to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ConAgra because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

ConAgra Foods after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 29.79  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ConAgra contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ConAgra Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.78% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With ConAgra Foods trading at USD 30.01, that is roughly USD 0.53 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ConAgra Foods' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ConAgra Foods options at the current volatility level of 28.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out ConAgra Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ConAgra Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.4029.8831.36
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
27.6330.3633.70
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.660.570.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ConAgra Foods. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ConAgra Foods' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ConAgra Foods' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ConAgra Foods.

ConAgra Foods After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ConAgra Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ConAgra Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ConAgra Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ConAgra Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ConAgra Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ConAgra Foods' historical news coverage. ConAgra Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.31 and 31.27, respectively. We have considered ConAgra Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
30.01
29.79
After-hype Price
31.27
Upside
ConAgra Foods is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ConAgra Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.

ConAgra Foods Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ConAgra Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ConAgra Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ConAgra Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
1.48
  0.03 
  0.02 
7 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
30.01
29.79
0.10 
389.47  
Notes

ConAgra Foods Hype Timeline

On the 16th of April 2024 ConAgra Foods is traded for 30.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. ConAgra is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.79 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on ConAgra Foods is about 548.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.03. The company reported the last year's revenue of 12.28 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 683.2 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.86 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out ConAgra Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide.

ConAgra Foods Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ConAgra Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ConAgra Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how ConAgra Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ConAgra Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

ConAgra Foods Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ConAgra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ConAgra using various technical indicators. When you analyze ConAgra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About ConAgra Foods Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of ConAgra Foods stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ConAgra Foods, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ConAgra Foods based on analysis of ConAgra Foods hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ConAgra Foods's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ConAgra Foods's related companies.
 2014 2019 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02780.03740.02440.0294
Price To Sales Ratio1.341.361.531.61

Story Coverage note for ConAgra Foods

The number of cover stories for ConAgra Foods depends on current market conditions and ConAgra Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ConAgra Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ConAgra Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ConAgra Foods Short Properties

ConAgra Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when ConAgra Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ConAgra Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ConAgra Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConAgra Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding480.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments93.9 M
When determining whether ConAgra Foods is a strong investment it is important to analyze ConAgra Foods' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact ConAgra Foods' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding ConAgra Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out ConAgra Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide.
Note that the ConAgra Foods information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ConAgra Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

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Is ConAgra Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConAgra Foods. If investors know ConAgra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConAgra Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.1)
Dividend Share
1.38
Earnings Share
1.99
Revenue Per Share
25.336
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of ConAgra Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConAgra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConAgra Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConAgra Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConAgra Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConAgra Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConAgra Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ConAgra Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConAgra Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.